TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13123722
Played Sep 13Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1179111143111214
Gracjan Kesik
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Gracjan Kesik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 93 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 3–0 Gracjan Kesik Gracjan Kesik has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Staszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Staszczyk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1696 vs Kesik 1527
Staszczyk
Wrong
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 100% vs Kesik 40%
Staszczyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 60% vs Kesik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +5 · Kesik -2
Staszczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.53 / Kesik 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Staszczyk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13123722
Staszczyk1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 151 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it88% 60 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it84% 108 of 129
Kesik2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 54 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back34% 21 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStaszczyk3wins
AwayKesik0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk2Kesik1n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S2Staszczyk1Kesik2n = 3Kesik took 2 of 3
S3Staszczyk2Kesik1n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S4Staszczyk2Kesik1n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStaszczykKesikS − KBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match46.039.3+6.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 336 vs 322 / 59656.9%54%191 / 336 vs 322 / 596Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.53/Kesik 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kesik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WMay 31 · 13:50K. Staszczyk46411119113G. Kesik4211581172
WMay 31 · 08:35K. Staszczyk53119811143G. Kesik49911116122
WMay 30 · 13:25K. Staszczyk3911611113G. Kesik27511921
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 13 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.38119971K. Staszczyk1.5381111113WSep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk1.73119119123M. Marchlewski2.00911511102WSep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas2.00116661K. Staszczyk1.7331111113WSep 11 · 23:35K. Staszczyk2.1011111113T. Filbrandt1.67881181WSep 11 · 22:50P. Jendrzejewski1.838950K. Staszczyk1.831111113LSep 11 · 13:50K. Staszczyk1.8041111442M. Kolek1.90116711113LSep 11 · 12:35K. Staszczyk2.905890M. Miastowski1.321111113LSep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk2.6586111412M. Nowalinski1.381111712113WSep 11 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.858101191K. Staszczyk1.8511128113LSep 11 · 09:20K. Staszczyk1.951071171K. Wisniewski1.7412119113
G. Kesik10
LSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252LSep 13 · 14:15G. Kesik1.517101161M. Piecowski2.2911127113WSep 13 · 12:35P. Maruszak1.9591170G. Kesik1.741113113WSep 13 · 11:45T. Piotrowski2.1010260G. Kesik1.651211113LSep 13 · 10:55G. Kesik2.65631121M. Kolek1.4011118113WSep 13 · 09:45G. Kesik2.255171211133D. Solilo1.541115144112WSep 12 · 19:40D. Kotwica2.5586100G. Kesik1.411111123WSep 12 · 18:55K. Marchlewski2.70113661G. Kesik1.4091111113LSep 12 · 18:10G. Kesik2.4110810A. Wos1.461211113WSep 12 · 16:35G. Kesik1.411111810113W. Gluszek2.6059111262
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G. Kesik
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