Filip Mlynarski vs Gracjan Kesik 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120928

Played Sep 13Finished

Filip Mlynarski

Home

1.40

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1171315811112115

Gracjan Kesik

Away

2.75

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:04 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%

Graded at full time

Gracjan Kesik to win

64.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Gracjan Kesik below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 13-15

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 11-2

Set 5 · 11-5

Point 94 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Gracjan Kesik at 64.6%

94 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 16:04

What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Mlynarski

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Mlynarski 1715 vs Kesik 1516

Mlynarski

Correct

both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mlynarski 60% vs Kesik 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mlynarski 80% vs Kesik 60%

Mlynarski

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Mlynarski +1 · Kesik -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kesik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMlynarski 1.40 / Kesik 2.75

Signal prob.69% / 31%

Edge (Mlynarski)+2.8pp

TT Elite Series · #13120928

Mlynarski1.40

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite65% won 139 of 214

Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73

Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 122

Kesik2.75

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog47% won 54 of 114

Down 0–1, comes back34% 21 of 61

Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricMlynarskiKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 303 vs 322 / 59556.4%54.1%171 / 303 vs 322 / 595Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Mlynarski

Mlynarski 1.40/Kesik 2.75

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

69.1%

Mlynarski · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Mlynarski won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

F. Mlynarski10