TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115949
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomasz Filbrandt
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115711611118711
Filip Mlynarski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomasz Filbrandt above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Tomasz Filbrandt at 58.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Filbrandt 14–18 Filip Mlynarski Tomasz Filbrandt has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mlynarski beat Filbrandt 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:34What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mlynarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-18 in 32
Mlynarski
Correct
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filbrandt 1566 vs Mlynarski 1686
Mlynarski
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filbrandt 20% vs Mlynarski 80%
Mlynarski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filbrandt 30% vs Mlynarski 50%
Mlynarski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filbrandt +1 · Mlynarski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilbrandt 1.91 / Mlynarski 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Mlynarski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13115949
Filbrandt1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 60 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 57
Mlynarski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 141 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it80% 102 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilbrandt4wins
AwayMlynarski6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilbrandt50%2 of 4
AwayMlynarski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filbrandt4Mlynarski6n = 10Mlynarski took 6 of 10
S2Filbrandt4Mlynarski6n = 10Mlynarski took 6 of 10
S3Filbrandt6Mlynarski4n = 10Filbrandt took 6 of 10
S4Filbrandt2Mlynarski7n = 9Mlynarski took 7 of 9
S5Filbrandt3Mlynarski2n = 5Filbrandt took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilbrandtMlynarskiF − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.143.6−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilbrandtMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime687 / 1290 vs 168 / 29953.3%56.2%687 / 1290 vs 168 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiFilbrandt 1.91/Mlynarski 1.80
Hit
What we said
55.5%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mlynarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 16:55T. Filbrandt4713591192F. Mlynarski511111117113
WSep 5 · 22:10T. Filbrandt47119124113F. Mlynarski43411101172
LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt29511761F. Mlynarski4211911113
LAug 2 · 24:10T. Filbrandt397101391F. Mlynarski45111211113
WAug 1 · 18:05T. Filbrandt47712125113F. Mlynarski511110101192
LJul 27 · 24:45T. Filbrandt3931511192F. Mlynarski551113911113
WJul 26 · 22:30T. Filbrandt4281112113F. Mlynarski331141081
LJul 26 · 20:30T. Filbrandt215970F. Mlynarski331111113
LJul 26 · 01:10T. Filbrandt34118691F. Mlynarski3961111113
WJul 25 · 22:50T. Filbrandt46117116113F. Mlynarski4471171182
T. Filbrandt10
LSep 12 · 21:50T. Filbrandt2.1091191182D. Jadam1.67117118113WSep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski1.737570T. Filbrandt2.001111113LSep 12 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.53411111172M. Kolek2.38118913113LSep 12 · 18:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8311211113T. Filbrandt1.83611891LSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192LSep 12 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113T. Filbrandt2.259470LSep 12 · 24:20P. Jendrzejewski1.831111113T. Filbrandt1.839980LSep 11 · 23:35K. Staszczyk2.1011111113T. Filbrandt1.67881181WSep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.9111911113M. Marchlewski1.80511941WSep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas2.2512148732T. Filbrandt1.5710121111113
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski2.633640F. Mlynarski1.441111113LSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143WSep 12 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.6131111592F. Mlynarski2.20113711113WSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113WSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192WSep 12 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.6711711133P. Jendrzejewski2.106119111WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172
Upcoming Matches
T. Filbrandt
F. Mlynarski
Sep 13 · 24:35F. Mlynarski1.83D. Jadam1.83—Sep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski—M. Kolek——Sep 13 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 13 · 20:30F. Mlynarski—D. Jadam——Sep 13 · 21:00F. Mlynarski—M. Rutkowski——Sep 13 · 22:10F. Mlynarski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 13 · 22:35F. Mlynarski—A. Wos——Sep 13 · 23:20F. Mlynarski—D. Jadam——
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