TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13116022
Played Sep 12Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311611411––––
Filip Mlynarski
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 46 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Filip Mlynarski at 54.8%
46 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 6–29 Filip Mlynarski Marcin Marchlewski has won 6 of their 35 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mlynarski beat Marchlewski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mlynarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-29 in 35
Mlynarski
Correct
gap of 23 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1564 vs Mlynarski 1717
Mlynarski
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 40% vs Mlynarski 80%
Mlynarski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Mlynarski 60%
Mlynarski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +1 · Mlynarski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.63 / Mlynarski 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Mlynarski)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13116022
Marchlewski2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 73 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 60
Mlynarski1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 141 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it80% 102 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski4wins
AwayMlynarski6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski60%3 of 5
AwayMlynarski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski5Mlynarski5n = 10split evenly
S2Marchlewski2Mlynarski8n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10
S3Marchlewski2Mlynarski8n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10
S4Marchlewski2Mlynarski4n = 6Mlynarski took 4 of 6
S5Marchlewski4Mlynarski1n = 5Marchlewski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiMlynarskiMarchlewski − MlynarskiBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.641.7−7.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 935 vs 170 / 30148.1%56.5%450 / 935 vs 170 / 301Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiMarchlewski 2.63/Mlynarski 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mlynarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski133640F. Mlynarski331111113
LSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski4111931172F. Mlynarski49711119113
WAug 23 · 23:20M. Marchlewski521111127113F. Mlynarski4969141192
WAug 22 · 21:25M. Marchlewski521191011113F. Mlynarski4571112692
WAug 22 · 16:55M. Marchlewski531111137113F. Mlynarski50713111182
LAug 8 · 22:10M. Marchlewski136160F. Mlynarski331111113
WAug 8 · 17:40M. Marchlewski53811147133F. Mlynarski511161211112
LJul 26 · 24:20M. Marchlewski33118681F. Mlynarski4181111113
LJul 25 · 22:05M. Marchlewski207670F. Mlynarski331111113
LJul 25 · 17:40M. Marchlewski166730F. Mlynarski331111113
M. Marchlewski10
WSep 12 · 22:35D. Jadam1.803990M. Marchlewski1.911111113WSep 12 · 21:00P. Jendrzejewski1.53811971M. Marchlewski2.3811311113LSep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski1.737570T. Filbrandt2.001111113WSep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.381111510123P. Jendrzejewski1.53971112102LSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113LSep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski3.40118471J. Kuzmicz1.3081111113WSep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.731011115113M. Kolek2.0012561162LSep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk1.73119119123M. Marchlewski2.00911511102LSep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas1.6711118133M. Marchlewski2.106911111LSep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.9111911113M. Marchlewski1.80511941
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 12 · 21:25T. Filbrandt1.9111761172F. Mlynarski1.80511118113LSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143WSep 12 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.6131111592F. Mlynarski2.20113711113WSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113WSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192WSep 12 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.6711711133P. Jendrzejewski2.106119111WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172
Upcoming Matches
M. Marchlewski
F. Mlynarski
Sep 13 · 24:35F. Mlynarski1.83D. Jadam1.83—Sep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski—M. Kolek——Sep 13 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 13 · 20:30F. Mlynarski—D. Jadam——Sep 13 · 21:00F. Mlynarski—M. Rutkowski——Sep 13 · 22:10F. Mlynarski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 13 · 22:35F. Mlynarski—A. Wos——Sep 13 · 23:20F. Mlynarski—D. Jadam——
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