TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110402
Played Sep 11Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161198111311––
Marcin Marchlewski
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Mitas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Marcin Marchlewski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 80 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Jacek Mitas at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 5–2 Marcin Marchlewski Marcin Marchlewski has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Mitas beat Marchlewski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mitas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Mitas
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1601 vs Marchlewski 1603
Marchlewski
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 40% vs Marchlewski 60%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 40% vs Marchlewski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas -2 · Marchlewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Mitas) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 1.67 / Marchlewski 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Mitas)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13110402
Mitas1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 57 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it84% 41 of 49
Marchlewski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMitas5wins
AwayMarchlewski2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMitas leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitas100%4 of 4
AwayMarchlewski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas4Marchlewski3n = 7Mitas took 4 of 7
S2Mitas6Marchlewski1n = 7Mitas took 6 of 7
S3Mitas4Marchlewski3n = 7Mitas took 4 of 7
S4Mitas4Marchlewski1n = 5Mitas took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMitasMarchlewskiMitas − MarchlewskiBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.933.9+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 239 vs 447 / 92745.6%48.2%109 / 239 vs 447 / 927Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MitasMitas 1.67/Marchlewski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Mitas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas—11118133M. Marchlewski—6911111
WSep 11 · 16:55J. Mitas—1111113M. Marchlewski—3540
WAug 21 · 22:30J. Mitas—51111113M. Marchlewski—119751
WAug 21 · 18:05J. Mitas—11125103M. Marchlewski—9101191
WAug 7 · 23:15J. Mitas—1711113M. Marchlewski—15770
LAug 7 · 18:50J. Mitas—101171152M. Marchlewski—125118113
LJun 12 · 20:10J. Mitas—381181M. Marchlewski—11118113
J. Mitas10
LSep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas2.00116661K. Staszczyk1.7331111113LSep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas2.2512148732T. Filbrandt1.5710121111113LSep 11 · 21:00K. Strowski1.33116811113J. Mitas3.2571111552WSep 11 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski1.44711121162J. Mitas2.63116143113WSep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas2.001112113T. Filbrandt1.7391060LSep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas2.6351111852M. Nowalinski1.44119611113WSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113LSep 11 · 24:35K. Kapik1.8311116113J. Mitas1.83891171LSep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10111176113J. Mitas1.6786111172LSep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht1.5313119113J. Mitas2.381171171
M. Marchlewski10
LSep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.9111911113M. Marchlewski1.80511941WSep 11 · 22:30P. Jendrzejewski1.531191111102M. Marchlewski2.38131159123LSep 11 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.757880M. Nowalinski1.401111113WSep 11 · 19:40K. Strowski1.4081111782M. Marchlewski2.75118811113WSep 11 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski1.6191111782M. Marchlewski2.20117511113LSep 11 · 18:05M. Marchlewski2.00311891T. Filbrandt1.7311911113LSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113
Upcoming Matches
J. Mitas
M. Marchlewski5 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 01:30M. Marchlewski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski—M. Kolek——Sep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski—T. Filbrandt——Sep 12 · 21:00M. Marchlewski—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 22:35M. Marchlewski—D. Jadam——Sep 12 · 23:20M. Marchlewski—T. Filbrandt——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.