TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114788
Played Sep 11Finished
Patryk Jendrzejewski
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11139111151191012
Marcin Marchlewski
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:17 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePatryk Jendrzejewski to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatryk Jendrzejewski above · Marcin Marchlewski below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 102 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Patryk Jendrzejewski at 56.5%
102 points played in total.
H2H Patryk Jendrzejewski 7–5 Marcin Marchlewski Marcin Marchlewski has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Marchlewski beat Jendrzejewski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jendrzejewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Jendrzejewski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jendrzejewski 1611 vs Marchlewski 1606
Jendrzejewski
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jendrzejewski 20% vs Marchlewski 40%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jendrzejewski 50% vs Marchlewski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jendrzejewski +1 · Marchlewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Jendrzejewski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jendrzejewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJendrzejewski 1.53 / Marchlewski 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Jendrzejewski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13114788
Jendrzejewski1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 145 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it97% 69 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it81% 114 of 141
Marchlewski2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJendrzejewski5wins
AwayMarchlewski5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJendrzejewski80%4 of 5
AwayMarchlewski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jendrzejewski5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Jendrzejewski7Marchlewski3n = 10Jendrzejewski took 7 of 10
S3Jendrzejewski6Marchlewski4n = 10Jendrzejewski took 6 of 10
S4Jendrzejewski4Marchlewski3n = 7Jendrzejewski took 4 of 7
S5Jendrzejewski1Marchlewski4n = 5Marchlewski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJendrzejewskiMarchlewskiJ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.438.2+3.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJendrzejewskiMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 717 vs 446 / 92449%48.3%351 / 717 vs 446 / 924Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JendrzejewskiJendrzejewski 1.53/Marchlewski 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Jendrzejewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski—91111782M. Marchlewski—117511113
WJul 31 · 22:30P. Jendrzejewski—1111113M. Marchlewski—6680
LJul 31 · 18:05P. Jendrzejewski—101181182M. Marchlewski—128119113
LJul 11 · 01:30P. Jendrzejewski—149111272M. Marchlewski—1611610113
WJul 10 · 23:15P. Jendrzejewski—1111910113M. Marchlewski—77111292
WJul 10 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski—11911113M. Marchlewski—511771
WJun 12 · 15:55P. Jendrzejewski—1111133M. Marchlewski—95110
LMar 14 · 20:30P. Jendrzejewski—11112982M. Marchlewski—671111113
WMar 14 · 16:35P. Jendrzejewski—91111113M. Marchlewski—116861
LMar 14 · 24:50P. Jendrzejewski—48100M. Marchlewski—1111123
P. Jendrzejewski10
LSep 11 · 22:50P. Jendrzejewski1.838950K. Staszczyk1.831111113WSep 11 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.911212113T. Filbrandt1.80101090LSep 11 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski1.44711121162J. Mitas2.63116143113LSep 11 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski1.6191111782M. Marchlewski2.20117511113LSep 11 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.50881141K. Strowski1.5011115113LSep 11 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8371161192M. Nowalinski1.83118114113WSep 6 · 24:35P. Jendrzejewski2.001111123F. Mlynarski1.7396100LSep 5 · 23:45D. Jadam1.911111113P. Jendrzejewski1.805980WSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 21:50A. Wos2.759870P. Jendrzejewski1.401111113
M. Marchlewski10
LSep 11 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.757880M. Nowalinski1.401111113WSep 11 · 19:40K. Strowski1.4081111782M. Marchlewski2.75118811113WSep 11 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski1.6191111782M. Marchlewski2.20117511113LSep 11 · 18:05M. Marchlewski2.00311891T. Filbrandt1.7311911113LSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Jendrzejewski2 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 24:20P. Jendrzejewski1.83T. Filbrandt1.83—Sep 12 · 01:10P. Jendrzejewski1.50J. Mitas2.50—Sep 12 · 15:45P. Jendrzejewski—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 16:30P. Jendrzejewski—M. Kolek——Sep 12 · 18:05P. Jendrzejewski—T. Filbrandt——Sep 12 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski—M. Marchlewski——Sep 12 · 19:40P. Jendrzejewski—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 21:00P. Jendrzejewski—M. Marchlewski——Sep 12 · 22:55P. Jendrzejewski—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 23:45P. Jendrzejewski—D. Jadam——
M. Marchlewski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 23:15M. Marchlewski1.80T. Filbrandt1.91—Sep 11 · 23:55M. Marchlewski2.10J. Mitas1.67—Sep 12 · 01:30M. Marchlewski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski—M. Kolek——Sep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski—T. Filbrandt——Sep 12 · 21:00M. Marchlewski—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski—F. Mlynarski——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.