TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110237
Played Sep 12Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113611611611––
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 65 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 56.4%
65 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 1–3 Konrad Staszczyk Jacek Mitas has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Staszczyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1601 vs Staszczyk 1640
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 60% vs Staszczyk 40%
Mitas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 40% vs Staszczyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas +1 · Staszczyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 2.00 / Staszczyk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13110237
Mitas2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Staszczyk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 153 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it87% 61 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it83% 109 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMitas1wins
AwayStaszczyk3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitas33.3%1 of 3
AwayStaszczykn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas3Staszczyk1n = 4Mitas took 3 of 4
S2Mitas2Staszczyk2n = 4split evenly
S3Mitas1Staszczyk3n = 4Staszczyk took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMitasStaszczykM − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match34.037.0−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 239 vs 188 / 33345.6%56.5%109 / 239 vs 188 / 333Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykMitas 2.00/Staszczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas—111116862K. Staszczyk—561811113
LJun 7 · 24:45J. Mitas—65110K. Staszczyk—1111133
WJun 6 · 22:20J. Mitas—1111113K. Staszczyk—8750
LJun 6 · 20:15J. Mitas—116661K. Staszczyk—91111113
J. Mitas10
WSep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas1.6711118133M. Marchlewski2.106911111LSep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas2.2512148732T. Filbrandt1.5710121111113LSep 11 · 21:00K. Strowski1.33116811113J. Mitas3.2571111552WSep 11 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski1.44711121162J. Mitas2.63116143113WSep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas2.001112113T. Filbrandt1.7391060LSep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas2.6351111852M. Nowalinski1.44119611113WSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113LSep 11 · 24:35K. Kapik1.8311116113J. Mitas1.83891171LSep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10111176113J. Mitas1.6786111172LSep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht1.5313119113J. Mitas2.381171171
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 11 · 23:35K. Staszczyk2.1011111113T. Filbrandt1.67881181WSep 11 · 22:50P. Jendrzejewski1.838950K. Staszczyk1.831111113LSep 11 · 13:50K. Staszczyk1.8041111442M. Kolek1.90116711113LSep 11 · 12:35K. Staszczyk2.905890M. Miastowski1.321111113LSep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk2.6586111412M. Nowalinski1.381111712113WSep 11 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.858101191K. Staszczyk1.8511128113LSep 11 · 09:20K. Staszczyk1.951071171K. Wisniewski1.7412119113WSep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas2.00111116862K. Staszczyk1.73561811113WSep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.9168111192K. Staszczyk1.80111139113LSep 10 · 17:20K. Kolodziej1.2861111113K. Staszczyk3.50113631
Upcoming Matches
J. Mitas
Nothing scheduled
K. Staszczyk
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