TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110403
Played Sep 11Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101412811711311
Tomasz Filbrandt
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Tomasz Filbrandt below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 99 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Tomasz Filbrandt at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 6–5 Tomasz Filbrandt Tomasz Filbrandt has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mitas beat Filbrandt 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Filbrandt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1588 vs Filbrandt 1625
Filbrandt
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 60% vs Filbrandt 40%
Mitas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 40% vs Filbrandt 60%
Filbrandt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas -1 · Filbrandt -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Filbrandt) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filbrandt form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 2.25 / Filbrandt 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Filbrandt)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13110403
Mitas2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Filbrandt1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 145 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it79% 98 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitas5wins
AwayFilbrandt5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitas75%3 of 4
AwayFilbrandt66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas4Filbrandt6n = 10Filbrandt took 6 of 10
S2Mitas6Filbrandt4n = 10Mitas took 6 of 10
S3Mitas4Filbrandt6n = 10Filbrandt took 6 of 10
S4Mitas4Filbrandt3n = 7Mitas took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitasFilbrandtM − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.437.4−2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasFilbrandtBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 238 vs 685 / 128245.4%53.4%108 / 238 vs 685 / 1282Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilbrandtMitas 2.25/Filbrandt 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Filbrandt · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas—12148732T. Filbrandt—10121111113
WSep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas—1112113T. Filbrandt—91060
WAug 28 · 21:45J. Mitas—11118113T. Filbrandt—691151
LAug 27 · 15:00J. Mitas—711781T. Filbrandt—11711113
LAug 7 · 20:05J. Mitas—6970T. Filbrandt—1111113
LAug 6 · 15:00J. Mitas—1051231T. Filbrandt—121110113
WAug 1 · 23:15J. Mitas—91211113T. Filbrandt—1110691
WAug 1 · 20:30J. Mitas—561111113T. Filbrandt—11117662
LMay 13 · 01:05J. Mitas—4980T. Filbrandt—1111113
WMay 12 · 22:40J. Mitas—11115153T. Filbrandt—4811131
J. Mitas10
LSep 11 · 21:00K. Strowski1.33116811113J. Mitas3.2571111552WSep 11 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski1.44711121162J. Mitas2.63116143113WSep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas2.001112113T. Filbrandt1.7391060LSep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas2.6351111852M. Nowalinski1.44119611113WSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113LSep 11 · 24:35K. Kapik1.8311116113J. Mitas1.83891171LSep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10111176113J. Mitas1.6786111172LSep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht1.5313119113J. Mitas2.381171171WSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas2.00111116862K. Staszczyk1.73561811113
T. Filbrandt10
LSep 11 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.911212113T. Filbrandt1.80101090WSep 11 · 20:30T. Filbrandt2.631411169113M. Nowalinski1.44168141192LSep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas2.001112113T. Filbrandt1.7391060WSep 11 · 18:05M. Marchlewski2.00311891T. Filbrandt1.7311911113LSep 11 · 16:30K. Strowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008780WSep 5 · 23:20A. Wos2.38101115572T. Filbrandt1.531291311113LSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 22:10T. Filbrandt1.67119124113F. Mlynarski2.10411101172WSep 5 · 21:00D. Jadam2.0091490T. Filbrandt1.731116113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Filbrandt1.5711711113A. Wos2.25711691
Upcoming Matches
J. Mitas
T. Filbrandt2 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.91M. Marchlewski1.80—Sep 11 · 23:35T. Filbrandt1.67K. Staszczyk2.10—Sep 12 · 24:20T. Filbrandt1.83P. Jendrzejewski1.83—Sep 12 · 15:25T. Filbrandt—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 16:55T. Filbrandt—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 18:05T. Filbrandt—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 12 · 19:15T. Filbrandt—M. Kolek——Sep 12 · 20:30T. Filbrandt—M. Marchlewski——Sep 12 · 21:25T. Filbrandt—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 21:50T. Filbrandt—D. Jadam——
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