TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13116025
Played Sep 12Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012115116511116
Maciej Kolek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Marcin Marchlewski at 55.3%
71 points drawn · the score is 17 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 5–2 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marchlewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Marchlewski
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1593 vs Kolek 1639
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 20% vs Kolek 40%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -3 · Kolek -2
Marchlewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marchlewski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.73 / Kolek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marchlewski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13116025
Marchlewski1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 111 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it80% 81 of 101
Kolek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 188 of 469
Down 0–1, comes back22% 61 of 278
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMarchlewski5wins
AwayKolek2wins
4 of 7 to a deciderMarchlewski leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski80%4 of 5
AwayKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski5Kolek2n = 7Marchlewski took 5 of 7
S2Marchlewski3Kolek4n = 7Kolek took 4 of 7
S3Marchlewski3Kolek4n = 7Kolek took 4 of 7
S4Marchlewski6Kolek1n = 7Marchlewski took 6 of 7
S5Marchlewski2Kolek2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiKolekM − KBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match44.442.1+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 928 vs 687 / 138448.2%49.6%447 / 928 vs 687 / 1384Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiMarchlewski 1.73/Kolek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJun 7 · 05:20M. Marchlewski4211681252M. Kolek485111110113
WJun 6 · 06:35M. Marchlewski50116138123M. Kolek518111111102
WApr 24 · 17:45M. Marchlewski4211911113M. Kolek31411881
WMar 22 · 11:20M. Marchlewski4111811113M. Kolek33411991
WMar 13 · 21:10M. Marchlewski558111213113M. Kolek49114141192
WFeb 21 · 21:40M. Marchlewski3611113113M. Kolek36791191
LJan 23 · 21:05M. Marchlewski45611111162M. Kolek47118134113
M. Marchlewski10
LSep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski3.40118471J. Kuzmicz1.3081111113LSep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk1.73119119123M. Marchlewski2.00911511102LSep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas1.6711118133M. Marchlewski2.106911111LSep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.9111911113M. Marchlewski1.80511941WSep 11 · 22:30P. Jendrzejewski1.531191111102M. Marchlewski2.38131159123LSep 11 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.757880M. Nowalinski1.401111113WSep 11 · 19:40K. Strowski1.4081111782M. Marchlewski2.75118811113WSep 11 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski1.6191111782M. Marchlewski2.20117511113LSep 11 · 18:05M. Marchlewski2.00311891T. Filbrandt1.7311911113LSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113
M. Kolek10
LSep 12 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz1.80127811113M. Kolek1.90101111882LSep 12 · 11:20K. Rudomina2.30411116113M. Kolek1.5211791182WSep 12 · 10:30R. Malinowski2.60117791M. Kolek1.4261111113LSep 12 · 09:00D. Solilo2.001111113M. Kolek1.717860WSep 11 · 13:50K. Staszczyk1.8041111442M. Kolek1.90116711113WSep 11 · 13:00D. Kosmal1.70381191M. Kolek1.9511118113WSep 11 · 12:10M. Kolek2.4091111113K. Wisniewski1.47114461WSep 11 · 10:30M. Kolek2.5512114113M. Nowalinski1.421091151LSep 11 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.3791112113M. Kolek2.701191081WSep 11 · 24:10J. Chmielowski1.831168121M. Kolek1.8381111143
Upcoming Matches
M. Marchlewski
Sep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.00F. Mlynarski1.36—Sep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.38P. Jendrzejewski1.53—Sep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski1.92T. Filbrandt1.72—Sep 12 · 21:00M. Marchlewski2.38P. Jendrzejewski1.47—Sep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski3.00F. Mlynarski1.36—Sep 12 · 22:35M. Marchlewski1.91D. Jadam1.80—Sep 12 · 23:20M. Marchlewski1.73T. Filbrandt2.00—
M. Kolek1 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 16:30M. Kolek2.20P. Jendrzejewski1.61—Sep 12 · 17:20M. Kolek3.00J. Kuzmicz1.36—Sep 12 · 19:15M. Kolek2.38T. Filbrandt1.53—Sep 12 · 20:05M. Kolek2.38F. Mlynarski1.53—Sep 13 · 09:20M. Kolek—P. Maruszak——Sep 13 · 10:55M. Kolek—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 12:10M. Kolek—D. Solilo——Sep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek—M. Piecowski——Sep 13 · 14:35M. Kolek—T. Piotrowski——Sep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek—D. Jadam——
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