TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115866
Played Sep 12Finished
Patryk Jendrzejewski
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811113911711––
Marcin Marchlewski
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:14 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePatryk Jendrzejewski to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatryk Jendrzejewski above · Marcin Marchlewski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Patryk Jendrzejewski at 56.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Patryk Jendrzejewski 7–7 Marcin Marchlewski Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Marchlewski beat Jendrzejewski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jendrzejewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jendrzejewski 1652 vs Marchlewski 1566
Jendrzejewski
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jendrzejewski 60% vs Marchlewski 40%
Jendrzejewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jendrzejewski 60% vs Marchlewski 30%
Jendrzejewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jendrzejewski +1 · Marchlewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Jendrzejewski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJendrzejewski 1.53 / Marchlewski 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Jendrzejewski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13115866
Jendrzejewski1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 147 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it97% 71 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it81% 116 of 143
Marchlewski2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 73 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJendrzejewski4wins
AwayMarchlewski6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMarchlewski leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJendrzejewski80%4 of 5
AwayMarchlewski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jendrzejewski5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Jendrzejewski6Marchlewski4n = 10Jendrzejewski took 6 of 10
S3Jendrzejewski7Marchlewski3n = 10Jendrzejewski took 7 of 10
S4Jendrzejewski5Marchlewski3n = 8Jendrzejewski took 5 of 8
S5Jendrzejewski1Marchlewski6n = 7Marchlewski took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJendrzejewskiMarchlewskiJ − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.141.6+3.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJendrzejewskiMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 726 vs 449 / 93349%48.1%356 / 726 vs 449 / 933Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JendrzejewskiJendrzejewski 1.53/Marchlewski 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Jendrzejewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski49971112102M. Marchlewski491111510123
LSep 11 · 22:30P. Jendrzejewski521191111102M. Marchlewski50131159123
LSep 11 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski4691111782M. Marchlewski45117511113
WJul 31 · 22:30P. Jendrzejewski331111113M. Marchlewski206680
LJul 31 · 18:05P. Jendrzejewski48101181182M. Marchlewski51128119113
LJul 11 · 01:30P. Jendrzejewski53149111272M. Marchlewski541611610113
WJul 10 · 23:15P. Jendrzejewski521111910113M. Marchlewski4677111292
WJul 10 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski4211911113M. Marchlewski30511771
WJun 12 · 15:55P. Jendrzejewski351111133M. Marchlewski2595110
LMar 14 · 20:30P. Jendrzejewski4111112982M. Marchlewski46671111113
P. Jendrzejewski10
WSep 12 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.61811581P. Jendrzejewski2.2011911113LSep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.381111510123P. Jendrzejewski1.53971112102WSep 12 · 18:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8311211113T. Filbrandt1.83611891WSep 12 · 16:30P. Jendrzejewski1.61111282113M. Kolek2.20610111152LSep 12 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.6711711133P. Jendrzejewski2.106119111WSep 12 · 01:10P. Jendrzejewski1.5011116113J. Mitas2.50771151WSep 12 · 24:20P. Jendrzejewski1.831111113T. Filbrandt1.839980LSep 11 · 22:50P. Jendrzejewski1.838950K. Staszczyk1.831111113LSep 11 · 22:30P. Jendrzejewski1.531191111102M. Marchlewski2.38131159123WSep 11 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.911212113T. Filbrandt1.80101090
M. Marchlewski10
WSep 12 · 22:35D. Jadam1.803990M. Marchlewski1.911111113LSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski2.633640F. Mlynarski1.441111113LSep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski1.737570T. Filbrandt2.001111113WSep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.381111510123P. Jendrzejewski1.53971112102LSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113LSep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski3.40118471J. Kuzmicz1.3081111113WSep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.731011115113M. Kolek2.0012561162LSep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk1.73119119123M. Marchlewski2.00911511102LSep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas1.6711118133M. Marchlewski2.106911111WSep 11 · 22:30P. Jendrzejewski1.531191111102M. Marchlewski2.38131159123
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