TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115950
Played Sep 12Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511711––––
Tomasz Filbrandt
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Tomasz Filbrandt below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Tomasz Filbrandt at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 27–28 Tomasz Filbrandt Marcin Marchlewski has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:34What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marchlewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-28 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1581 vs Filbrandt 1551
Marchlewski
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 40% vs Filbrandt 0%
Marchlewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Filbrandt 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +1 · Filbrandt -5
Filbrandt
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marchlewski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filbrandt form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.73 / Filbrandt 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marchlewski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13115950
Marchlewski1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 111 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it80% 81 of 101
Filbrandt2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 60 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski5wins
AwayFilbrandt5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski60%3 of 5
AwayFilbrandt60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski5Filbrandt5n = 10split evenly
S2Marchlewski5Filbrandt5n = 10split evenly
S3Marchlewski5Filbrandt5n = 10split evenly
S4Marchlewski5Filbrandt5n = 10split evenly
S5Marchlewski2Filbrandt2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiFilbrandtM − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.9−0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiFilbrandtBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 932 vs 686 / 128948.2%53.2%449 / 932 vs 686 / 1289Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiMarchlewski 1.73/Filbrandt 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 18:05M. Marchlewski31311891T. Filbrandt4211911113
LAug 7 · 16:55M. Marchlewski4093111162T. Filbrandt50111189113
LAug 2 · 23:20M. Marchlewski471011511102T. Filbrandt41124112123
WAug 2 · 20:30M. Marchlewski4291111113T. Filbrandt31117761
LJul 25 · 23:35M. Marchlewski30115681T. Filbrandt4291111113
WJul 25 · 21:20M. Marchlewski4211911113T. Filbrandt38911991
WJul 18 · 24:20M. Marchlewski49111188113T. Filbrandt4289111132
LJul 17 · 22:05M. Marchlewski401314761T. Filbrandt49111611113
WJul 17 · 16:55M. Marchlewski4311612143T. Filbrandt4071110121
WJun 27 · 23:35M. Marchlewski48811117113T. Filbrandt4411771182
M. Marchlewski10
WSep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.381111510123P. Jendrzejewski1.53971112102LSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113LSep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski3.40118471J. Kuzmicz1.3081111113WSep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.731011115113M. Kolek2.0012561162LSep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk1.73119119123M. Marchlewski2.00911511102LSep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas1.6711118133M. Marchlewski2.106911111LSep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.9111911113M. Marchlewski1.80511941WSep 11 · 22:30P. Jendrzejewski1.531191111102M. Marchlewski2.38131159123LSep 11 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.757880M. Nowalinski1.401111113WSep 11 · 19:40K. Strowski1.4081111782M. Marchlewski2.75118811113
T. Filbrandt10
LSep 12 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.53411111172M. Kolek2.38118913113LSep 12 · 18:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8311211113T. Filbrandt1.83611891LSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192LSep 12 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113T. Filbrandt2.259470LSep 12 · 24:20P. Jendrzejewski1.831111113T. Filbrandt1.839980LSep 11 · 23:35K. Staszczyk2.1011111113T. Filbrandt1.67881181WSep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.9111911113M. Marchlewski1.80511941WSep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas2.2512148732T. Filbrandt1.5710121111113LSep 11 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.911212113T. Filbrandt1.80101090WSep 11 · 20:30T. Filbrandt2.631411169113M. Nowalinski1.44168141192
Upcoming Matches
M. Marchlewski
T. Filbrandt
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.