TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115951
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomasz Filbrandt
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111181191113711
Maciej Kolek
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:35 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomasz Filbrandt above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Tomasz Filbrandt at 55.6%
96 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Filbrandt 8–4 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:35What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Filbrandt
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Filbrandt
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filbrandt 1569 vs Kolek 1627
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filbrandt 0% vs Kolek 20%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filbrandt 30% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Filbrandt -5 · Kolek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Filbrandt) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilbrandt 1.53 / Kolek 2.38
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Filbrandt)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13115951
Filbrandt1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 147 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it79% 99 of 125
Kolek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 188 of 469
Down 0–1, comes back22% 61 of 278
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilbrandt6wins
AwayKolek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFilbrandt leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilbrandt71.4%5 of 7
AwayKolek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filbrandt7Kolek3n = 10Filbrandt took 7 of 10
S2Filbrandt4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S3Filbrandt4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S4Filbrandt6Kolek3n = 9Filbrandt took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilbrandtKolekF − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.2+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilbrandtKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime686 / 1288 vs 688 / 138853.3%49.6%686 / 1288 vs 688 / 1388Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilbrandtFilbrandt 1.53/Kolek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.2%
Filbrandt · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 23:55T. Filbrandt31411791M. Kolek4211911113
WSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt3711411113M. Kolek31711491
WAug 14 · 22:05T. Filbrandt4111118113M. Kolek33671191
WJul 5 · 23:35T. Filbrandt4011711113M. Kolek36811981
WJul 5 · 21:20T. Filbrandt45111166113M. Kolek4378111162
LJul 4 · 23:55T. Filbrandt34145961M. Kolek45121111113
LJul 4 · 21:45T. Filbrandt4511881172M. Kolek47611118113
WJul 4 · 18:50T. Filbrandt4491111133M. Kolek311145111
LJun 28 · 17:45T. Filbrandt226880M. Kolek331111113
WApr 22 · 24:40T. Filbrandt3611311113M. Kolek31811571
T. Filbrandt10
LSep 12 · 18:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8311211113T. Filbrandt1.83611891LSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192LSep 12 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113T. Filbrandt2.259470LSep 12 · 24:20P. Jendrzejewski1.831111113T. Filbrandt1.839980LSep 11 · 23:35K. Staszczyk2.1011111113T. Filbrandt1.67881181WSep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.9111911113M. Marchlewski1.80511941WSep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas2.2512148732T. Filbrandt1.5710121111113LSep 11 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.911212113T. Filbrandt1.80101090WSep 11 · 20:30T. Filbrandt2.631411169113M. Nowalinski1.44168141192LSep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas2.001112113T. Filbrandt1.7391060
M. Kolek10
LSep 12 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.36111188113M. Kolek3.0068111192LSep 12 · 16:30P. Jendrzejewski1.61111282113M. Kolek2.20610111152LSep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.731011115113M. Kolek2.0012561162WSep 12 · 14:15G. Kesik2.5513580M. Kolek1.451511113LSep 12 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz1.80127811113M. Kolek1.90101111882LSep 12 · 11:20K. Rudomina2.30411116113M. Kolek1.5211791182WSep 12 · 10:30R. Malinowski2.60117791M. Kolek1.4261111113LSep 12 · 09:00D. Solilo2.001111113M. Kolek1.717860WSep 11 · 13:50K. Staszczyk1.8041111442M. Kolek1.90116711113WSep 11 · 13:00D. Kosmal1.70381191M. Kolek1.9511118113
Upcoming Matches
T. Filbrandt
M. Kolek2 of 10 neutral
Sep 13 · 09:20M. Kolek—P. Maruszak——Sep 13 · 10:55M. Kolek—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 12:10M. Kolek—D. Solilo——Sep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek—M. Piecowski——Sep 13 · 14:35M. Kolek—T. Piotrowski——Sep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek—D. Jadam——Sep 13 · 16:05M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——Sep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek—L. Pietraszko——Sep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek—K. Staszczyk——
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