TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115699
Played Sep 12Finished
Jakub Kuzmicz
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116118811811119
Maciej Kolek
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:06 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kuzmicz above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 56.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kuzmicz 24–12 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 12 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kuzmicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-12 in 36
Kuzmicz
Correct
gap of 12 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmicz 1812 vs Kolek 1633
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmicz 80% vs Kolek 20%
Kuzmicz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmicz 70% vs Kolek 50%
Kuzmicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmicz +2 · Kolek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmicz 1.36 / Kolek 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13115699
Kuzmicz1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite62% won 427 of 688
Up 2–0, closes it98% 176 of 180
Up 1–0, closes it81% 296 of 365
Kolek3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 188 of 469
Down 0–1, comes back22% 61 of 278
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmicz8wins
AwayKolek2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmicz71.4%5 of 7
AwayKolek0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmicz7Kolek3n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S2Kuzmicz7Kolek3n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S3Kuzmicz7Kolek3n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S4Kuzmicz2Kolek5n = 7Kolek took 5 of 7
S5Kuzmicz3Kolek0n = 3Kuzmicz took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmiczKolekKuzmicz − KolekBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.536.5+6.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmiczKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime675 / 1169 vs 688 / 138757.7%49.6%675 / 1169 vs 688 / 1387Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczKuzmicz 1.36/Kolek 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 13:50J. Kuzmicz4613141181M. Kolek51111613113
WAug 23 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz3911512113M. Kolek336111061
WAug 20 · 22:10J. Kuzmicz48711118113M. Kolek3911691122
WAug 19 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz331111113M. Kolek184860
WAug 14 · 23:55J. Kuzmicz5711111113113M. Kolek4813881542
LAug 7 · 24:35J. Kuzmicz4311913101M. Kolek4681115123
WAug 5 · 18:50J. Kuzmicz511211116113M. Kolek4914691192
WAug 4 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz341211113M. Kolek2210840
WJul 25 · 19:15J. Kuzmicz331111113M. Kolek204880
WJul 25 · 01:10J. Kuzmicz4113116113M. Kolek391191181
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski3.40118471J. Kuzmicz1.3081111113WSep 12 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113T. Filbrandt2.259470LSep 11 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz1.9111881272M. Jadczyk1.807111110113WSep 11 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.83111011113M. Olejnik1.83512691WSep 11 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz1.73111199113K. Kolodziej2.0097111182LSep 11 · 11:15K. Strowski1.9181113113J. Kuzmicz1.801191191WSep 11 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz1.911191110143K. Wloczko1.80811612122WSep 11 · 08:05K. Wloczko2.00139110J. Kuzmicz1.731511133WSep 11 · 07:20M. Olejnik1.61412381J. Kuzmicz2.20111011113LSep 11 · 05:15G. Poliniewicz2.25511118113J. Kuzmicz1.5711551152
M. Kolek10
LSep 12 · 16:30P. Jendrzejewski1.61111282113M. Kolek2.20610111152LSep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.731011115113M. Kolek2.0012561162WSep 12 · 14:15G. Kesik2.5513580M. Kolek1.451511113LSep 12 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz1.80127811113M. Kolek1.90101111882LSep 12 · 11:20K. Rudomina2.30411116113M. Kolek1.5211791182WSep 12 · 10:30R. Malinowski2.60117791M. Kolek1.4261111113LSep 12 · 09:00D. Solilo2.001111113M. Kolek1.717860WSep 11 · 13:50K. Staszczyk1.8041111442M. Kolek1.90116711113WSep 11 · 13:00D. Kosmal1.70381191M. Kolek1.9511118113WSep 11 · 12:10M. Kolek2.4091111113K. Wisniewski1.47114461
Upcoming Matches
J. Kuzmicz
M. Kolek2 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 19:15M. Kolek2.38T. Filbrandt1.53—Sep 12 · 20:05M. Kolek2.38F. Mlynarski1.53—Sep 13 · 09:20M. Kolek—P. Maruszak——Sep 13 · 10:55M. Kolek—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 12:10M. Kolek—D. Solilo——Sep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek—M. Piecowski——Sep 13 · 14:35M. Kolek—T. Piotrowski——Sep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek—D. Jadam——Sep 13 · 16:05M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——Sep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek—G. Kesik——
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