TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119138
Played Sep 12Finished
Gracjan Kesik
Home
2.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1315511811––––
Maciej Kolek
Away
1.45
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
63 points played in total.
Set by set
1315511811––––
H2H Gracjan Kesik 4–7 Maciej Kolek Gracjan Kesik has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Kolek
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kesik 1522 vs Kolek 1636
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kesik 60% vs Kolek 40%
Kesik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kesik 50% vs Kolek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kesik +2 · Kolek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKesik 2.55 / Kolek 1.45
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Kolek)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119138
Kesik2.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 55 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back35% 23 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Kolek1.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 270 of 447
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it81% 203 of 251
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKesik4wins
AwayKolek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKesik80%4 of 5
AwayKolek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kesik5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kesik3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S3Kesik4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S4Kesik4Kolek3n = 7Kesik took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKesikKolekKesik − KolekBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.4−0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKesikKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime316 / 584 vs 687 / 138554.1%49.6%316 / 584 vs 687 / 1385Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKesik 2.55/Kolek 1.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 04:25G. Kesik46114911113M. Kolek4381111762
LJun 7 · 06:35G. Kesik531312101172M. Kolek541114126113
LMay 31 · 10:05G. Kesik2355130M. Kolek371111153
LMay 31 · 03:20G. Kesik399811111M. Kolek4311118133
WApr 12 · 11:30G. Kesik331111113M. Kolek259790
LMar 8 · 12:05G. Kesik378116121M. Kolek4411811143
WMar 4 · 16:25G. Kesik4111811113M. Kolek31711941
LMar 4 · 12:50G. Kesik32841191M. Kolek3811115113
LFeb 19 · 19:30G. Kesik29910100M. Kolek351112123
WFeb 17 · 16:25G. Kesik4211119113M. Kolek34781181
G. Kesik10
WSep 12 · 16:35G. Kesik1.411111810113W. Gluszek2.6059111262LSep 12 · 15:50R. Stapor1.9613115113G. Kesik1.701161191WSep 12 · 12:35K. Rudomina1.851011961G. Kesik1.8512911113WSep 12 · 11:45D. Solilo1.589101471G. Kesik2.13111212113LSep 12 · 10:55G. Kesik1.7511116262G. Poliniewicz1.90641111113WSep 12 · 09:45G. Kesik1.90111011113R. Malinowski1.80612761LSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113WSep 1 · 13:05G. Kesik2.2291111113S. Brud1.57118981WSep 1 · 11:50G. Kesik2.10611135113A. Sobel1.65112111162LSep 1 · 10:10G. Kesik1.991011911102P. Blocho1.70129115123
M. Kolek10
LSep 12 · 16:30P. Jendrzejewski1.61111282113M. Kolek2.20610111152LSep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.731011115113M. Kolek2.0012561162LSep 12 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz1.80127811113M. Kolek1.90101111882LSep 12 · 11:20K. Rudomina2.30411116113M. Kolek1.5211791182WSep 12 · 10:30R. Malinowski2.60117791M. Kolek1.4261111113LSep 12 · 09:00D. Solilo2.001111113M. Kolek1.717860WSep 11 · 13:50K. Staszczyk1.8041111442M. Kolek1.90116711113WSep 11 · 13:00D. Kosmal1.70381191M. Kolek1.9511118113WSep 11 · 12:10M. Kolek2.4091111113K. Wisniewski1.47114461WSep 11 · 10:30M. Kolek2.5512114113M. Nowalinski1.421091151
Upcoming Matches
G. Kesik1 of 6 neutral
M. Kolek1 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 17:20M. Kolek3.00J. Kuzmicz1.36—Sep 12 · 19:15M. Kolek2.38T. Filbrandt1.53—Sep 12 · 20:05M. Kolek2.38F. Mlynarski1.53—Sep 13 · 09:20M. Kolek—P. Maruszak——Sep 13 · 10:55M. Kolek—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 12:10M. Kolek—D. Solilo——Sep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek—M. Piecowski——Sep 13 · 14:35M. Kolek—T. Piotrowski——Sep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek—D. Jadam——Sep 13 · 16:05M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——
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