TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115377
Played Sep 12Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.96
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311116511119––
Gracjan Kesik
Away
1.70
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1311116511119––
H2H Rafal Stapor 5–2 Gracjan Kesik Gracjan Kesik has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:13What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Kesik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Stapor
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1408 vs Kesik 1522
Kesik
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 20% vs Kesik 60%
Kesik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 50% vs Kesik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Kesik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Kesik) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (20%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.96 / Kesik 1.70
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kesik)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13115377
Stapor1.96
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 107 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 106
Kesik1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 79 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStapor5wins
AwayKesik2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderStapor leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor100%5 of 5
AwayKesikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor5Kesik2n = 7Stapor took 5 of 7
S2Stapor5Kesik2n = 7Stapor took 5 of 7
S3Stapor5Kesik2n = 7Stapor took 5 of 7
S4Stapor1Kesik2n = 3Kesik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricStaporKesikS − KBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match36.433.6+2.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 1145 vs 316 / 58456.4%54.1%646 / 1145 vs 316 / 584Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KesikStapor 1.96/Kesik 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.2%
Kesik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 19 · 16:55R. Stapor4112711113G. Kesik391011991
WJul 3 · 13:30R. Stapor491111105123G. Kesik44741211102
WJun 7 · 05:00R. Stapor331111113G. Kesik218490
LJun 1 · 07:05R. Stapor2610970G. Kesik341211113
WJun 1 · 04:35R. Stapor351111133G. Kesik2577110
LApr 18 · 11:45R. Stapor38611110102G. Kesik49116911123
WMar 13 · 21:15R. Stapor331111113G. Kesik239860
R. Stapor10
LSep 11 · 13:55R. Stapor1.878860B. Mleczko1.831111113WSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150LSep 11 · 11:25R. Stapor1.858970B. Czerwinski1.801111113LSep 11 · 10:10B. Sulkowski1.751111113R. Stapor1.959880LSep 11 · 09:25R. Stapor1.7613129892M. Zagajewski1.9011101111113WSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113LSep 11 · 07:20R. Stapor1.358911111B. Wisniewski2.8011113133WSep 11 · 06:05J. Glanowski1.721181081R. Stapor1.9261112113WSep 11 · 04:55M. Zagajewski1.95119871R. Stapor1.7061111113WSep 11 · 03:25M. Trela1.9511712922R. Stapor1.759111011113
G. Kesik10
WSep 12 · 16:35G. Kesik1.411111810113W. Gluszek2.6059111262LSep 12 · 14:15G. Kesik2.5513580M. Kolek1.451511113WSep 12 · 12:35K. Rudomina1.851011961G. Kesik1.8512911113WSep 12 · 11:45D. Solilo1.589101471G. Kesik2.13111212113LSep 12 · 10:55G. Kesik1.7511116262G. Poliniewicz1.90641111113WSep 12 · 09:45G. Kesik1.90111011113R. Malinowski1.80612761LSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113WSep 1 · 13:05G. Kesik2.2291111113S. Brud1.57118981WSep 1 · 11:50G. Kesik2.10611135113A. Sobel1.65112111162LSep 1 · 10:10G. Kesik1.991011911102P. Blocho1.70129115123
Upcoming Matches
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G. Kesik1 of 6 neutral
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