TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110773
Played Sep 11Finished
Mateusz Zagajewski
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116911811711––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.70
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:44 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
116911811711––
H2H Mateusz Zagajewski 0–3 Rafal Stapor Mateusz Zagajewski has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:44What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Stapor
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zagajewski 1347 vs Stapor 1436
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zagajewski 20% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zagajewski 40% vs Stapor 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zagajewski -1 · Stapor +3
Stapor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zagajewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZagajewski 1.95 / Stapor 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stapor)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13110773
Zagajewski1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Stapor1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 407 of 640
Up 2–0, closes it96% 202 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 313 of 382
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeZagajewski0wins
AwayStapor3wins
Stapor leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZagajewskin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayStapor100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zagajewski0Stapor3n = 3Stapor took 3 of 3
S2Zagajewski0Stapor3n = 3Stapor took 3 of 3
S3Zagajewski0Stapor3n = 3Stapor took 3 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away3100%
These 3 meetings
MetricZagajewskiStaporZ − SBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match23.336.0−12.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZagajewskiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 717 vs 642 / 113649.2%56.5%353 / 717 vs 642 / 1136Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporZagajewski 1.95/Stapor 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 5 · 10:30M. Zagajewski—11460R. Stapor—1311113
LJun 21 · 14:35M. Zagajewski—710120R. Stapor—1112143
LJun 21 · 03:40M. Zagajewski—44120R. Stapor—1111143
M. Zagajewski10
LSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak1.80121211113M. Zagajewski1.861014771LSep 11 · 03:50M. Zagajewski2.107118111J. Glanowski1.6011311133WSep 6 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.9351271172M. Zagajewski1.751110118113LSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330LSep 6 · 12:10M. Zagajewski1.82177781T. Pisarczyk1.85151111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Zagajewski2.225121171D. Wasilewski1.5611145113LSep 6 · 09:45P. Staniszewski1.8611811133M. Zagajewski1.836117111WSep 6 · 08:30I. Dabrowski1.907111121M. Zagajewski1.8011137113LSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 06:00T. Pisarczyk2.059270M. Zagajewski1.681111113
R. Stapor10
WSep 11 · 03:25M. Trela1.9511712922R. Stapor1.759111011113WSep 10 · 08:05F. Krcil1.90811121092R. Stapor1.801111012113WSep 10 · 07:15P. Blocho1.6371151182R. Stapor2.06115115113LSep 10 · 05:30B. Sulkowski1.851211113R. Stapor1.8510490LSep 10 · 04:20A. Linek1.831113116113R. Stapor1.8171571192LSep 10 · 03:00D. Kosmal1.251111113R. Stapor3.354690LSep 9 · 08:05P. Blocho1.6561111113R. Stapor2.02119791LSep 9 · 07:15B. Czerwinski1.8041113113R. Stapor1.911141181LSep 9 · 05:15B. Sulkowski1.8291111113R. Stapor1.90118661LSep 9 · 04:25D. Solilo1.701112113R. Stapor2.0071090
Upcoming Matches
M. Zagajewski
Sep 11 · 06:30M. Zagajewski1.57M. Trela2.16—Sep 11 · 08:10M. Zagajewski1.41B. Wisniewski2.60—Sep 11 · 09:25M. Zagajewski1.90R. Stapor1.76—Sep 11 · 11:00M. Zagajewski1.86M. Misiak1.80—Sep 11 · 12:15M. Zagajewski1.96B. Mleczko1.69—Sep 11 · 13:30M. Zagajewski2.50B. Czerwinski1.43—Sep 11 · 14:40M. Zagajewski1.79B. Sulkowski1.85—
R. Stapor
Sep 11 · 06:05R. Stapor1.92J. Glanowski1.72—Sep 11 · 07:20R. Stapor1.35B. Wisniewski2.80—Sep 11 · 08:35R. Stapor1.80M. Misiak1.90—Sep 11 · 09:25R. Stapor1.76M. Zagajewski1.90—Sep 11 · 10:10R. Stapor1.70B. Sulkowski1.95—Sep 11 · 11:25R. Stapor2.34B. Czerwinski1.48—Sep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.82M. Misiak1.82—Sep 11 · 13:55R. Stapor1.92B. Mleczko1.73—
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