TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13100518
Played Sep 9Finished
Bartosz Czerwinski
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111141311118––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
4111141311118––
H2H Bartosz Czerwinski 7–0 Rafal Stapor Rafal Stapor has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Czerwinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-0 in 7
Czerwinski
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Czerwinski 1464 vs Stapor 1445
Czerwinski
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Czerwinski 40% vs Stapor 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Czerwinski 30% vs Stapor 50%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Czerwinski -2 · Stapor -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Czerwinski) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCzerwinski 1.80 / Stapor 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Czerwinski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13100518
Czerwinski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 74 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it82% 53 of 65
Stapor1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 105 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back18% 31 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeCzerwinski7wins
AwayStapor0wins
6 of 7 to a deciderCzerwinski leads 7–0, and 6 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCzerwinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStapor0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Czerwinski2Stapor5n = 7Stapor took 5 of 7
S2Czerwinski5Stapor2n = 7Czerwinski took 5 of 7
S3Czerwinski4Stapor3n = 7Czerwinski took 4 of 7
S4Czerwinski4Stapor3n = 7Czerwinski took 4 of 7
S5Czerwinski6Stapor0n = 6Czerwinski took 6 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home686%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricCzerwinskiStaporC − SBasisWins70+7in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match44.343.1+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCzerwinskiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 1071 vs 639 / 112946.5%56.6%498 / 1071 vs 639 / 1129Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiCzerwinski 1.80/Stapor 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Czerwinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 9 · 07:15B. Czerwinski—41113113R. Stapor—1141181
WSep 3 · 10:35B. Czerwinski—611813113R. Stapor—118111192
WJun 23 · 07:15B. Czerwinski—113114113R. Stapor—81181172
WJun 23 · 04:50B. Czerwinski—921111113R. Stapor—11117882
WJun 22 · 07:15B. Czerwinski—711511113R. Stapor—11811432
WJun 22 · 04:50B. Czerwinski—811118113R. Stapor—11781192
WJun 10 · 05:15B. Czerwinski—111174113R. Stapor—96111182
B. Czerwinski10
LSep 9 · 06:00D. Solilo1.8581111113B. Czerwinski1.85115861LSep 9 · 04:50P. Blocho1.751161111123B. Czerwinski1.95611713102WSep 9 · 03:20B. Sulkowski2.301051181B. Czerwinski1.5512118113LSep 8 · 07:40B. Czerwinski1.85891281S. Brud1.85111110113WSep 8 · 06:25B. Czerwinski1.901121011113M. Minda1.8091112782LSep 8 · 05:15B. Czerwinski1.75871481A. Lilien1.95111112113WSep 8 · 04:00A. Sobel1.80114751B. Czerwinski1.9071111113LSep 8 · 03:20B. Czerwinski4.056770M. Sklensky1.171111113LSep 7 · 07:40B. Czerwinski1.40119871B. Wisniewski2.7541111113LSep 7 · 06:30B. Czerwinski1.86115751S. Brud1.8361111113
R. Stapor10
LSep 9 · 05:15B. Sulkowski1.8291111113R. Stapor1.90118661LSep 9 · 04:25D. Solilo1.701112113R. Stapor2.0071090WSep 9 · 03:00M. Minda1.71111171072R. Stapor2.00991112113WSep 8 · 08:10R. Stapor1.731211123A. Myszewski2.00107100LSep 8 · 06:30K. Sulkowski2.051111113R. Stapor1.656860WSep 8 · 05:40J. Glanowski1.708950R. Stapor1.911111113WSep 8 · 04:55R. Stapor1.831151110113A. Linek1.8781171272LSep 8 · 03:50R. Stapor1.49611891D. Wrobel2.3411511113WSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123LSep 3 · 13:05M. Kolek1.5012115123R. Stapor2.4010911101
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