TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13111000
Played Sep 11Finished
Mateusz Misiak
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101214117117––
Mateusz Zagajewski
Away
1.86
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Zagajewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
12101214117117––
H2H Mateusz Misiak 2–2 Mateusz Zagajewski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Misiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1354 vs Zagajewski 1338
Misiak
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 20% vs Zagajewski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 50% vs Zagajewski 30%
Misiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak +1 · Zagajewski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Misiak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zagajewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 1.80 / Zagajewski 1.86
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Misiak)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13111000
Misiak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 220 of 366
Up 2–0, closes it96% 133 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it81% 178 of 219
Zagajewski1.86
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMisiak2wins
AwayZagajewski2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak2Zagajewski2n = 4split evenly
S2Misiak4Zagajewski0n = 4Misiak took 4 of 4
S3Misiak4Zagajewski0n = 4Misiak took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMisiakZagajewskiM − ZBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match42.035.5+6.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakZagajewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1049 / 1977 vs 353 / 71853.1%49.2%1049 / 1977 vs 353 / 718Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MisiakMisiak 1.80/Zagajewski 1.86
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Misiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Misiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJun 21 · 11:45M. Misiak—1111113M. Zagajewski—4470
LJun 21 · 04:25M. Misiak—1011118122M. Zagajewski—125911143
LMay 15 · 10:35M. Misiak—8111110102M. Zagajewski—118812123
WJan 23 · 06:55M. Misiak—1111113M. Zagajewski—7990
M. Misiak10
LSep 11 · 04:10M. Misiak1.56812101192M. Trela2.181110126113WSep 11 · 03:00M. Misiak1.46111114113B. Wisniewski2.55881691LSep 10 · 14:40M. Misiak2.40511741B. Czerwinski1.5011811113LSep 10 · 13:05M. Misiak2.13571111P. Blocho1.5811117113LSep 10 · 11:50M. Misiak1.808960B. Sulkowski1.901111113LSep 10 · 10:10M. Misiak1.9011860A. Linek1.741311113WSep 10 · 09:00M. Misiak2.4151111113D. Solilo1.46114681WSep 10 · 07:50B. Wisniewski2.75114581M. Misiak1.4071111113LSep 10 · 07:10K. Klocek2.101611123M. Misiak1.60146100WSep 10 · 06:30M. Misiak1.77131111113K. Sulkowski1.95156781
M. Zagajewski10
LSep 11 · 04:55M. Zagajewski1.95119871R. Stapor1.7061111113LSep 11 · 03:50M. Zagajewski2.107118111J. Glanowski1.6011311133WSep 6 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.9351271172M. Zagajewski1.751110118113LSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330LSep 6 · 12:10M. Zagajewski1.82177781T. Pisarczyk1.85151111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Zagajewski2.225121171D. Wasilewski1.5611145113LSep 6 · 09:45P. Staniszewski1.8611811133M. Zagajewski1.836117111WSep 6 · 08:30I. Dabrowski1.907111121M. Zagajewski1.8011137113LSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 06:00T. Pisarczyk2.059270M. Zagajewski1.681111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Misiak
Sep 11 · 06:55M. Misiak2.02J. Glanowski1.65—Sep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90R. Stapor1.80—Sep 11 · 09:50M. Misiak1.95B. Mleczko1.74—Sep 11 · 11:00M. Misiak1.80M. Zagajewski1.86—Sep 11 · 11:50M. Misiak1.73B. Sulkowski1.92—Sep 11 · 12:40M. Misiak1.82R. Stapor1.82—Sep 11 · 14:20M. Misiak2.39B. Czerwinski1.47—
M. Zagajewski
Sep 11 · 06:30M. Zagajewski1.57M. Trela2.16—Sep 11 · 08:10M. Zagajewski1.41B. Wisniewski2.60—Sep 11 · 09:25M. Zagajewski1.90R. Stapor1.76—Sep 11 · 11:00M. Zagajewski1.86M. Misiak1.80—Sep 11 · 12:15M. Zagajewski1.96B. Mleczko1.69—Sep 11 · 13:30M. Zagajewski2.50B. Czerwinski1.43—Sep 11 · 14:40M. Zagajewski1.79B. Sulkowski1.85—
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