TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13107995
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Misiak
Home
2.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118711411––
Bartosz Czerwinski
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:05 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
511118711411––
H2H Mateusz Misiak 2–2 Bartosz Czerwinski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:05What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Czerwinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1353 vs Czerwinski 1462
Czerwinski
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 40% vs Czerwinski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 40% vs Czerwinski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak -3 · Czerwinski -2
Misiak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Czerwinski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Czerwinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 2.40 / Czerwinski 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Czerwinski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13107995
Misiak2.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 106 of 297
Down 0–1, comes back14% 23 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 95
Czerwinski1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 75 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it82% 53 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMisiak2wins
AwayCzerwinski2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMisiak66.7%2 of 3
AwayCzerwinskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak3Czerwinski1n = 4Misiak took 3 of 4
S2Misiak1Czerwinski3n = 4Czerwinski took 3 of 4
S3Misiak1Czerwinski3n = 4Czerwinski took 3 of 4
S4Misiak3Czerwinski0n = 3Misiak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMisiakCzerwinskiM − CBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.039.00.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakCzerwinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1050 / 1979 vs 495 / 106653.1%46.4%1050 / 1979 vs 495 / 1066Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiMisiak 2.40/Czerwinski 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.3%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Czerwinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 28 · 03:50M. Misiak—11711113B. Czerwinski—911791
LJun 26 · 08:05M. Misiak—10770B. Czerwinski—1211113
WJun 26 · 05:35M. Misiak—12114113B. Czerwinski—1061181
LJun 5 · 07:20M. Misiak—1110101492B. Czerwinski—4121212113
M. Misiak10
LSep 10 · 13:05M. Misiak2.13571111P. Blocho1.5811117113LSep 10 · 11:50M. Misiak1.808960B. Sulkowski1.901111113LSep 10 · 10:10M. Misiak1.9011860A. Linek1.741311113WSep 10 · 09:00M. Misiak2.4151111113D. Solilo1.46114681WSep 10 · 07:50B. Wisniewski2.75114581M. Misiak1.4071111113LSep 10 · 07:10K. Klocek2.101611123M. Misiak1.60146100WSep 10 · 06:30M. Misiak1.77131111113K. Sulkowski1.95156781WSep 10 · 04:30M. Misiak1.511212113D. Wrobel2.29101020LSep 10 · 03:45J. Glanowski1.9011118113M. Misiak1.80791171LSep 4 · 14:40M. Misiak2.80119691A. Lilien1.3791111113
B. Czerwinski10
LSep 10 · 13:30B. Czerwinski1.9011118762D. Solilo1.76591111113LSep 10 · 12:15P. Blocho2.01119115143B. Czerwinski1.66511411122WSep 10 · 11:00B. Sulkowski2.0091351192B. Czerwinski1.701111117113LSep 10 · 09:25A. Linek2.3211812133B. Czerwinski1.4971110111WSep 9 · 08:30M. Minda1.85781191B. Czerwinski1.8511117113WSep 9 · 07:15B. Czerwinski1.8041113113R. Stapor1.911141181LSep 9 · 06:00D. Solilo1.8581111113B. Czerwinski1.85115861LSep 9 · 04:50P. Blocho1.751161111123B. Czerwinski1.95611713102WSep 9 · 03:20B. Sulkowski2.301051181B. Czerwinski1.5512118113LSep 8 · 07:40B. Czerwinski1.85891281S. Brud1.85111110113
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