TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105495
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Misiak
Home
1.51
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101210112––––
Dariusz Wrobel
Away
2.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Misiak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
12101210112––––
H2H Mateusz Misiak 30–19 Dariusz Wrobel Dariusz Wrobel has won 19 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.51 (60%)
Misiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-19 in 49
Misiak
Correct
gap of 11 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1338 vs Wrobel 1305
Misiak
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 40% vs Wrobel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 40% vs Wrobel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak -2 · Wrobel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Misiak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Misiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 1.51 / Wrobel 2.29
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Misiak)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13105495
Misiak1.51
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 218 of 364
Up 2–0, closes it96% 133 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it81% 178 of 221
Wrobel2.29
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 78 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back28% 24 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMisiak5wins
AwayWrobel5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMisiak62.5%5 of 8
AwayWrobeln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak8Wrobel2n = 10Misiak took 8 of 10
S2Misiak4Wrobel6n = 10Wrobel took 6 of 10
S3Misiak5Wrobel5n = 10split evenly
S4Misiak3Wrobel5n = 8Wrobel took 5 of 8
S5Misiak2Wrobel2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMisiakWrobelM − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.135.6+3.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakWrobelBasisWin rate · lifetime1047 / 1972 vs 546 / 113953.1%47.9%1047 / 1972 vs 546 / 1139Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MisiakMisiak 1.51/Wrobel 2.29
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.7%
Misiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Misiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 25 · 07:15M. Misiak—1111113D. Wrobel—2540
LJul 25 · 04:50M. Misiak—111011492D. Wrobel—312711113
LFeb 26 · 24:20M. Misiak—1110771D. Wrobel—61211113
WFeb 25 · 22:00M. Misiak—1111123D. Wrobel—89100
WFeb 3 · 01:10M. Misiak—118711113D. Wrobel—51111872
LFeb 2 · 22:45M. Misiak—11861182D. Wrobel—011117113
LFeb 2 · 18:45M. Misiak—511481D. Wrobel—11911113
WJan 28 · 01:10M. Misiak—1110115113D. Wrobel—91291182
LJan 27 · 22:45M. Misiak—1211471D. Wrobel—14111113
WJan 22 · 01:10M. Misiak—11911113D. Wrobel—411361
M. Misiak10
LSep 10 · 03:45J. Glanowski1.9011118113M. Misiak1.80791171LSep 4 · 14:40M. Misiak2.80119691A. Lilien1.3791111113WSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak1.221111113M. Lukaszewski3.704840LSep 4 · 11:50M. Misiak2.6071160M. Minda1.411113113WSep 4 · 10:10M. Misiak1.511111123A. Myszewski2.4087100LSep 4 · 09:00M. Misiak1.745890W. Gronowski1.951111113WSep 4 · 07:40K. Klocek2.307121091M. Misiak1.55111012113LSep 4 · 06:55A. Myszewski2.4081211113M. Misiak1.501110431WSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak1.2511119113M. Lukaszewski3.45771121LSep 4 · 04:30M. Misiak2.4031181192B. Sulkowski1.50117116113
D. Wrobel10
WSep 10 · 05:50B. Wisniewski1.9571141182D. Wrobel1.75117117113LSep 10 · 03:00K. Klocek1.6912117113D. Wrobel1.971081181WSep 8 · 07:40K. Sulkowski1.85611871D. Wrobel1.8511611113LSep 8 · 06:55J. Glanowski1.471991111113D. Wrobel2.40171113972WSep 8 · 06:05D. Wrobel2.35911113113A. Linek1.5011681182LSep 8 · 04:30D. Wrobel2.0691190A. Myszewski1.621113113WSep 8 · 03:50R. Stapor1.49611891D. Wrobel2.3411511113LSep 5 · 08:05M. Minda1.451111143D. Wrobel2.4569120LSep 5 · 07:15J. Wozniak1.8581111113D. Wrobel1.80112571WSep 5 · 05:15W. Gronowski1.711131081D. Wrobel2.0071112113
Upcoming Matches
M. Misiak
Sep 10 · 06:30M. Misiak1.77K. Sulkowski1.95—Sep 10 · 07:10M. Misiak1.60K. Klocek2.10—Sep 10 · 07:50M. Misiak1.34B. Wisniewski2.80—Sep 10 · 09:00M. Misiak2.41D. Solilo1.46—Sep 10 · 10:10M. Misiak1.90A. Linek1.74—Sep 10 · 11:50M. Misiak1.80B. Sulkowski1.90—Sep 10 · 13:05M. Misiak2.13P. Blocho1.58—Sep 10 · 14:40M. Misiak2.39B. Czerwinski1.47—
D. Wrobel
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