TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112021
Played Sep 11Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911711––––
Bartosz Czerwinski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:33 and never touched — 72.2% is still 72.2%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
72.2%
72.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
811911711––––
H2H Rafal Stapor 0–7 Bartosz Czerwinski Rafal Stapor has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Czerwinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-7 in 7
Czerwinski
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1419 vs Czerwinski 1507
Czerwinski
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 40% vs Czerwinski 60%
Czerwinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Czerwinski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -2 · Czerwinski +3
Czerwinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Czerwinski) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.85 / Czerwinski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Czerwinski)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13112021
Stapor1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 106 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back18% 31 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 103
Czerwinski1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 77 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it82% 55 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStapor0wins
AwayCzerwinski7wins
6 of 7 to a deciderCzerwinski leads 7–0, and 6 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor0%0 of 5
AwayCzerwinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor5Czerwinski2n = 7Stapor took 5 of 7
S2Stapor2Czerwinski5n = 7Czerwinski took 5 of 7
S3Stapor3Czerwinski4n = 7Czerwinski took 4 of 7
S4Stapor3Czerwinski4n = 7Czerwinski took 4 of 7
S5Stapor0Czerwinski6n = 6Czerwinski took 6 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away686%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricStaporCzerwinskiS − CBasisWins07−7in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match43.144.3−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporCzerwinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime645 / 1142 vs 496 / 106256.5%46.7%645 / 1142 vs 496 / 1062Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiStapor 1.85/Czerwinski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Czerwinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 9 · 07:15R. Stapor—1141181B. Czerwinski—41113113
LSep 3 · 10:35R. Stapor—118111192B. Czerwinski—611813113
LJun 23 · 07:15R. Stapor—81181172B. Czerwinski—113114113
LJun 23 · 04:50R. Stapor—11117882B. Czerwinski—921111113
LJun 22 · 07:15R. Stapor—11811432B. Czerwinski—711511113
LJun 22 · 04:50R. Stapor—11781192B. Czerwinski—811118113
LJun 10 · 05:15R. Stapor—96111182B. Czerwinski—111174113
R. Stapor10
WSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150LSep 11 · 10:10B. Sulkowski1.751111113R. Stapor1.959880LSep 11 · 09:25R. Stapor1.7613129892M. Zagajewski1.9011101111113WSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113LSep 11 · 07:20R. Stapor1.358911111B. Wisniewski2.8011113133WSep 11 · 06:05J. Glanowski1.721181081R. Stapor1.9261112113WSep 11 · 04:55M. Zagajewski1.95119871R. Stapor1.7061111113WSep 11 · 03:25M. Trela1.9511712922R. Stapor1.759111011113WSep 10 · 08:05F. Krcil1.90811121092R. Stapor1.801111012113WSep 10 · 07:15P. Blocho1.6371151182R. Stapor2.06115115113
B. Czerwinski10
WSep 11 · 10:35B. Mleczko2.1541191192B. Czerwinski1.63117114113WSep 11 · 09:00B. Sulkowski2.201151181B. Czerwinski1.5871113113WSep 10 · 14:40M. Misiak2.40511741B. Czerwinski1.5011811113LSep 10 · 13:30B. Czerwinski1.9011118762D. Solilo1.76591111113LSep 10 · 12:15P. Blocho2.01119115143B. Czerwinski1.66511411122WSep 10 · 11:00B. Sulkowski2.0091351192B. Czerwinski1.701111117113LSep 10 · 09:25A. Linek2.3211812133B. Czerwinski1.4971110111WSep 9 · 08:30M. Minda1.85781191B. Czerwinski1.8511117113WSep 9 · 07:15B. Czerwinski1.8041113113R. Stapor1.911141181LSep 9 · 06:00D. Solilo1.8581111113B. Czerwinski1.85115861
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.