TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13111739
Played Sep 11Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.76
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13111210911811911
Mateusz Zagajewski
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:23 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
105 points played in total.
Set by set
13111210911811911
H2H Rafal Stapor 4–0 Mateusz Zagajewski Mateusz Zagajewski has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1445 vs Zagajewski 1358
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Zagajewski 40%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Zagajewski 30%
Stapor
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +1 · Zagajewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zagajewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.76 / Zagajewski 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stapor)+2.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13111739
Stapor1.76
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 407 of 640
Up 2–0, closes it96% 202 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 313 of 382
Zagajewski1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStapor4wins
AwayZagajewski0wins
Stapor leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor100%3 of 3
AwayZagajewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor3Zagajewski1n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
S2Stapor4Zagajewski0n = 4Stapor took 4 of 4
S3Stapor4Zagajewski0n = 4Stapor took 4 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home375%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStaporZagajewskiS − ZBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.826.2+10.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporZagajewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime645 / 1141 vs 355 / 72156.5%49.2%645 / 1141 vs 355 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.76/Zagajewski 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 11 · 04:55R. Stapor—61111113M. Zagajewski—119871
WJul 5 · 10:30R. Stapor—1311113M. Zagajewski—11460
WJun 21 · 14:35R. Stapor—1112143M. Zagajewski—710120
WJun 21 · 03:40R. Stapor—1111143M. Zagajewski—44120
R. Stapor10
WSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150LSep 11 · 11:25R. Stapor1.858970B. Czerwinski1.801111113LSep 11 · 10:10B. Sulkowski1.751111113R. Stapor1.959880WSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113LSep 11 · 07:20R. Stapor1.358911111B. Wisniewski2.8011113133WSep 11 · 06:05J. Glanowski1.721181081R. Stapor1.9261112113WSep 11 · 04:55M. Zagajewski1.95119871R. Stapor1.7061111113WSep 11 · 03:25M. Trela1.9511712922R. Stapor1.759111011113WSep 10 · 08:05F. Krcil1.90811121092R. Stapor1.801111012113WSep 10 · 07:15P. Blocho1.6371151182R. Stapor2.06115115113
M. Zagajewski10
LSep 11 · 12:15B. Mleczko1.6912111111143M. Zagajewski1.96147713122WSep 11 · 11:00M. Misiak1.801166101M. Zagajewski1.8691111123WSep 11 · 08:10M. Zagajewski1.528111011113B. Wisniewski2.3711812992WSep 11 · 06:30M. Trela1.857101181M. Zagajewski1.8011128113LSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak1.80121211113M. Zagajewski1.861014771LSep 11 · 04:55M. Zagajewski1.95119871R. Stapor1.7061111113LSep 11 · 03:50M. Zagajewski2.107118111J. Glanowski1.6011311133WSep 6 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.9351271172M. Zagajewski1.751110118113LSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330LSep 6 · 12:10M. Zagajewski1.82177781T. Pisarczyk1.85151111113
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