TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112024
Played Sep 11Finished
Mateusz Misiak
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1196116111012––
Mateusz Zagajewski
Away
1.86
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Zagajewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1196116111012––
H2H Mateusz Misiak 3–2 Mateusz Zagajewski Mateusz Zagajewski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:34What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Misiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1365 vs Zagajewski 1371
Zagajewski
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 60% vs Zagajewski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 40% vs Zagajewski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak +1 · Zagajewski +3
Zagajewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Misiak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 1.80 / Zagajewski 1.86
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Misiak)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13112024
Misiak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 220 of 366
Up 2–0, closes it96% 133 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it81% 178 of 219
Zagajewski1.86
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 45 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMisiak3wins
AwayZagajewski2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMisiak leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMisiak100%3 of 3
AwayZagajewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak3Zagajewski2n = 5Misiak took 3 of 5
S2Misiak4Zagajewski1n = 5Misiak took 4 of 5
S3Misiak5Zagajewski0n = 5Misiak took 5 of 5
S4Misiak1Zagajewski2n = 3Zagajewski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMisiakZagajewskiM − ZBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.836.0+6.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakZagajewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1052 / 1982 vs 356 / 72253.1%49.3%1052 / 1982 vs 356 / 722Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MisiakMisiak 1.80/Zagajewski 1.86
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Misiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak—121211113M. Zagajewski—1014771
WJun 21 · 11:45M. Misiak—1111113M. Zagajewski—4470
LJun 21 · 04:25M. Misiak—1011118122M. Zagajewski—125911143
LMay 15 · 10:35M. Misiak—8111110102M. Zagajewski—118812123
WJan 23 · 06:55M. Misiak—1111113M. Zagajewski—7990
M. Misiak10
LSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150LSep 11 · 11:50B. Sulkowski1.9211411113M. Misiak1.73811861WSep 11 · 09:50M. Misiak1.95116411133B. Mleczko1.74911117112LSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113WSep 11 · 06:55M. Misiak1.90611611113J. Glanowski1.8211811982WSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak1.80121211113M. Zagajewski1.861014771LSep 11 · 04:10M. Misiak1.56812101192M. Trela2.181110126113WSep 11 · 03:00M. Misiak1.46111114113B. Wisniewski2.55881691LSep 10 · 14:40M. Misiak2.40511741B. Czerwinski1.5011811113LSep 10 · 13:05M. Misiak2.13571111P. Blocho1.5811117113
M. Zagajewski10
LSep 11 · 12:15B. Mleczko1.6912111111143M. Zagajewski1.96147713122WSep 11 · 09:25R. Stapor1.7613129892M. Zagajewski1.9011101111113WSep 11 · 08:10M. Zagajewski1.528111011113B. Wisniewski2.3711812992WSep 11 · 06:30M. Trela1.857101181M. Zagajewski1.8011128113LSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak1.80121211113M. Zagajewski1.861014771LSep 11 · 04:55M. Zagajewski1.95119871R. Stapor1.7061111113LSep 11 · 03:50M. Zagajewski2.107118111J. Glanowski1.6011311133WSep 6 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.9351271172M. Zagajewski1.751110118113LSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330LSep 6 · 12:10M. Zagajewski1.82177781T. Pisarczyk1.85151111113
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