TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13111737
Played Sep 11Finished
Mateusz Misiak
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1196114111171311
Bartlomiej Mleczko
Away
1.74
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:23 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mleczko to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1196114111171311
H2H Mateusz Misiak 18–19 Bartlomiej Mleczko Mateusz Misiak has won 18 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:23What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Mleczko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-19 in 37
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1350 vs Mleczko 1483
Mleczko
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 60% vs Mleczko 40%
Misiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 40% vs Mleczko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak -1 · Mleczko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mleczko) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mleczko form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 1.95 / Mleczko 1.74
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Mleczko)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13111737
Misiak1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 103 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 94
Mleczko1.74
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 110 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it76% 76 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMisiak5wins
AwayMleczko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMisiak83.3%5 of 6
AwayMleczko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak6Mleczko4n = 10Misiak took 6 of 10
S2Misiak5Mleczko5n = 10split evenly
S3Misiak7Mleczko3n = 10Misiak took 7 of 10
S4Misiak3Mleczko5n = 8Mleczko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMisiakMleczkoMisiak − MleczkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.4+1.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakMleczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime1051 / 1981 vs 425 / 81353.1%52.3%1051 / 1981 vs 425 / 813Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MleczkoMisiak 1.95/Mleczko 1.74
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.6%
Mleczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Misiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 22:15M. Misiak—10118131B. Mleczko—12411153
LAug 22 · 16:55M. Misiak—711671B. Mleczko—11811113
WJul 31 · 14:40M. Misiak—11811113B. Mleczko—611751
WMay 30 · 10:20M. Misiak—1111113B. Mleczko—7980
LMay 10 · 16:20M. Misiak—841181B. Mleczko—11117113
LApr 26 · 19:00M. Misiak—16611942B. Mleczko—1411911113
LApr 12 · 15:30M. Misiak—711751B. Mleczko—11611113
WMar 29 · 19:00M. Misiak—1111113B. Mleczko—6960
WMar 21 · 14:25M. Misiak—11811163B. Mleczko—3119141
WMar 14 · 10:05M. Misiak—13811113B. Mleczko—1111851
M. Misiak10
LSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150LSep 11 · 11:50B. Sulkowski1.9211411113M. Misiak1.73811861LSep 11 · 11:00M. Misiak1.801166101M. Zagajewski1.8691111123LSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113WSep 11 · 06:55M. Misiak1.90611611113J. Glanowski1.8211811982WSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak1.80121211113M. Zagajewski1.861014771LSep 11 · 04:10M. Misiak1.56812101192M. Trela2.181110126113WSep 11 · 03:00M. Misiak1.46111114113B. Wisniewski2.55881691LSep 10 · 14:40M. Misiak2.40511741B. Czerwinski1.5011811113LSep 10 · 13:05M. Misiak2.13571111P. Blocho1.5811117113
B. Mleczko10
WSep 11 · 12:15B. Mleczko1.6912111111143M. Zagajewski1.96147713122LSep 11 · 10:35B. Mleczko2.1541191192B. Czerwinski1.63117114113LSep 11 · 08:30D. Solilo1.601111113B. Mleczko2.106770WSep 11 · 07:15B. Mleczko1.8361111113A. Linek1.86118971WSep 11 · 06:00B. Sulkowski1.9311911562B. Mleczko1.78711911113LSep 11 · 04:50D. Kosmal1.2811128113B. Mleczko3.157101181LSep 11 · 03:20K. Wisniewski1.241311113113B. Mleczko3.4015671172LAug 31 · 14:40G. Kesik1.7013511113B. Mleczko1.951111751WAug 31 · 13:30B. Mleczko2.0091111123M. Minda1.701186101LAug 31 · 12:15P. Blocho1.85111110113B. Mleczko1.85661271
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