TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13052718
Played Aug 31Finished
Gracjan Kesik
Home
1.70
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311511117115––
Bartlomiej Mleczko
Away
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mleczko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1311511117115––
H2H Gracjan Kesik 10–13 Bartlomiej Mleczko Gracjan Kesik has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:59What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Kesik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Mleczko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kesik 1521 vs Mleczko 1493
Kesik
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kesik 40% vs Mleczko 80%
Mleczko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kesik 60% vs Mleczko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kesik -3 · Mleczko +1
Kesik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kesik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mleczko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKesik 1.70 / Mleczko 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kesik)+0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13052718
Kesik1.70
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 105 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it80% 76 of 95
Mleczko1.95
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 58 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKesik5wins
AwayMleczko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKesik50%2 of 4
AwayMleczko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kesik4Mleczko6n = 10Mleczko took 6 of 10
S2Kesik5Mleczko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kesik7Mleczko3n = 10Kesik took 7 of 10
S4Kesik2Mleczko7n = 9Mleczko took 7 of 9
S5Kesik3Mleczko1n = 4Kesik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKesikMleczkoK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.241.2−2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKesikMleczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 569 vs 435 / 82954.1%52.5%308 / 569 vs 435 / 829Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KesikKesik 1.70/Mleczko 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kesik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kesik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 2 · 15:30G. Kesik—11711862B. Mleczko—811911113
LApr 12 · 10:20G. Kesik—811821B. Mleczko—11911113
WApr 12 · 06:10G. Kesik—1111113B. Mleczko—8960
WApr 6 · 18:30G. Kesik—8111011113B. Mleczko—11812892
WApr 6 · 10:10G. Kesik—1211159113B. Mleczko—145131152
LApr 6 · 05:40G. Kesik—781191B. Mleczko—11117113
LMar 22 · 14:50G. Kesik—115761B. Mleczko—61111113
WMar 22 · 09:35G. Kesik—11911113B. Mleczko—811851
WMar 8 · 15:45G. Kesik—711119113B. Mleczko—11991192
LMar 8 · 04:55G. Kesik—341151B. Mleczko—11118113
G. Kesik10
LSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113WSep 1 · 13:05G. Kesik2.2291111113S. Brud1.57118981WSep 1 · 11:50G. Kesik2.10611135113A. Sobel1.65112111162LSep 1 · 10:10G. Kesik1.991011911102P. Blocho1.70129115123LSep 1 · 09:00G. Kesik1.83311591K. Rudomina1.8311811113LSep 1 · 07:40D. Kosmal1.371111113G. Kesik2.758780WSep 1 · 06:50S. Brud1.608101181G. Kesik2.2011127113LSep 1 · 06:00G. Kesik1.858770A. Sobel1.851111113LSep 1 · 04:25G. Kesik2.4011118832J. Zochniak1.50491111113WSep 1 · 03:40M. Minda1.46127311102G. Kesik2.461011115123
B. Mleczko10
WAug 31 · 13:30B. Mleczko2.0091111123M. Minda1.701186101LAug 31 · 12:15P. Blocho1.85111110113B. Mleczko1.85661271WAug 31 · 11:00A. Sobel1.55611771B. Mleczko2.2411411113WAug 31 · 09:25J. Przewlocki2.5078111172B. Mleczko1.44111199113WAug 31 · 07:40S. Wnek2.7014460B. Mleczko1.391611113LAug 31 · 06:55J. Przewlocki2.4511711113B. Mleczko1.49911581WAug 31 · 06:05B. Mleczko1.291111113M. Lukaszewski3.156680WAug 31 · 04:30B. Mleczko1.95871111123P. Blocho1.70111117102LAug 31 · 03:50D. Solilo1.73115119113B. Mleczko1.9881171182WAug 29 · 13:50D. Kosmal1.52511671B. Mleczko2.3011311113
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