TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13053466
Played Sep 1Finished
Michal Minda
Home
1.46
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12107113111151012
Gracjan Kesik
Away
2.46
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:46 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeGracjan Kesik to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
12107113111151012
H2H Michal Minda 7–7 Gracjan Kesik Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Minda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Minda 1523 vs Kesik 1532
Kesik
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Minda 20% vs Kesik 40%
Kesik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Minda 30% vs Kesik 60%
Kesik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Minda -2 · Kesik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Minda) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Minda form (20%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMinda 1.46 / Kesik 2.46
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Minda)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13053466
Minda1.46
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 291 of 480
Up 2–0, closes it97% 121 of 125
Up 1–0, closes it80% 215 of 268
Kesik2.46
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 58 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMinda4wins
AwayKesik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKesik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMinda33.3%2 of 6
AwayKesik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Minda6Kesik4n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S2Minda6Kesik4n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S3Minda4Kesik6n = 10Kesik took 6 of 10
S4Minda2Kesik6n = 8Kesik took 6 of 8
S5Minda2Kesik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMindaKesikM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.040.3−1.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMindaKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime1028 / 2012 vs 309 / 57051.1%54.2%1028 / 2012 vs 309 / 570Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MindaMinda 1.46/Kesik 2.46
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Minda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kesik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 09:00M. Minda—711281G. Kesik—11711113
LAug 31 · 07:40M. Minda—119781G. Kesik—81111113
LMay 29 · 09:25M. Minda—811111082G. Kesik—114912113
WApr 12 · 07:35M. Minda—711311113G. Kesik—11611832
WApr 10 · 09:50M. Minda—1111113G. Kesik—9670
WMar 5 · 15:20M. Minda—1111113G. Kesik—4980
LFeb 27 · 13:40M. Minda—1213771G. Kesik—101511113
WFeb 16 · 21:05M. Minda—11111111113G. Kesik—13813892
LJan 1 · 21:05M. Minda—111013852G. Kesik—8121111113
LJul 11 · 09:25M. Minda—115851G. Kesik—91111113
M. Minda10
LSep 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.54111111113M. Minda2.25881381LSep 7 · 05:35M. Sklensky1.471111113M. Minda2.459480WSep 7 · 04:50M. Minda2.80101113153K. Wisniewski1.3712811131LSep 7 · 03:40M. Minda1.95711101182A. Sobel1.76119129113WSep 5 · 14:15K. Klocek2.70101113121M. Minda1.3512815143WSep 5 · 13:25B. Kwodawski2.90911621M. Minda1.3511911113WSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:30J. Wozniak2.10117911113M. Minda1.6791111872WSep 5 · 09:00J. Przewlocki2.951191031M. Minda1.3561112113WSep 5 · 08:05M. Minda1.451111143D. Wrobel2.4569120
G. Kesik10
LSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113WSep 1 · 13:05G. Kesik2.2291111113S. Brud1.57118981WSep 1 · 11:50G. Kesik2.10611135113A. Sobel1.65112111162LSep 1 · 10:10G. Kesik1.991011911102P. Blocho1.70129115123LSep 1 · 09:00G. Kesik1.83311591K. Rudomina1.8311811113LSep 1 · 07:40D. Kosmal1.371111113G. Kesik2.758780WSep 1 · 06:50S. Brud1.608101181G. Kesik2.2011127113LSep 1 · 06:00G. Kesik1.858770A. Sobel1.851111113LSep 1 · 04:25G. Kesik2.4011118832J. Zochniak1.50491111113WAug 31 · 14:40G. Kesik1.7013511113B. Mleczko1.951111751
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