TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13057092
Played Sep 1Finished
Gracjan Kesik
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711711––––
Artur Sobel
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:35 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
811711711––––
H2H Gracjan Kesik 4–9 Artur Sobel Gracjan Kesik has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Sobel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Sobel
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kesik 1495 vs Sobel 1522
Sobel
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kesik 40% vs Sobel 80%
Sobel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kesik 60% vs Sobel 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kesik -1 · Sobel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobel) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKesik 1.85 / Sobel 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sobel)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13057092
Kesik1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Sobel1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKesik2wins
AwaySobel8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSobel leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKesik33.3%1 of 3
AwaySobel85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kesik3Sobel7n = 10Sobel took 7 of 10
S2Kesik5Sobel5n = 10split evenly
S3Kesik7Sobel3n = 10Kesik took 7 of 10
S4Kesik1Sobel7n = 8Sobel took 7 of 8
S5Kesik1Sobel4n = 5Sobel took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKesikSobelK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.342.8−3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKesikSobelBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 580 vs 632 / 118154%53.5%313 / 580 vs 632 / 1181Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobelKesik 1.85/Sobel 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sobel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 11:50G. Kesik—611135113A. Sobel—112111162
LSep 1 · 06:00G. Kesik—8770A. Sobel—1111113
LAug 31 · 11:50G. Kesik—12101081A. Sobel—101212113
LAug 31 · 03:40G. Kesik—511971A. Sobel—11911113
LApr 10 · 16:15G. Kesik—711139102A. Sobel—1191111123
LApr 10 · 11:50G. Kesik—911111092A. Sobel—118712113
LApr 6 · 20:05G. Kesik—11611672A. Sobel—811611113
WApr 6 · 11:25G. Kesik—1111113A. Sobel—7990
LApr 6 · 06:55G. Kesik—69131152A. Sobel—1111115113
LFeb 27 · 17:15G. Kesik—861291A. Sobel—111110113
G. Kesik10
LSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113WSep 1 · 13:05G. Kesik2.2291111113S. Brud1.57118981WSep 1 · 11:50G. Kesik2.10611135113A. Sobel1.65112111162LSep 1 · 10:10G. Kesik1.991011911102P. Blocho1.70129115123LSep 1 · 09:00G. Kesik1.83311591K. Rudomina1.8311811113LSep 1 · 07:40D. Kosmal1.371111113G. Kesik2.758780WSep 1 · 06:50S. Brud1.608101181G. Kesik2.2011127113LSep 1 · 04:25G. Kesik2.4011118832J. Zochniak1.50491111113WSep 1 · 03:40M. Minda1.46127311102G. Kesik2.461011115123WAug 31 · 14:40G. Kesik1.7013511113B. Mleczko1.951111751
A. Sobel10
LSep 7 · 07:40J. Zochniak1.72119119133A. Sobel2.00711811112LSep 7 · 06:50M. Sklensky1.471112133A. Sobel2.45610110WSep 7 · 06:00A. Sobel2.60121111113K. Wisniewski1.42149591WSep 7 · 04:25A. Sobel2.2011116113D. Solilo1.57221111WSep 7 · 03:40M. Minda1.95711101182A. Sobel1.76119129113LSep 1 · 14:20A. Sobel1.9311128992K. Rudomina1.775101111113LSep 1 · 12:40P. Blocho2.001111113A. Sobel1.709830LSep 1 · 11:50G. Kesik2.10611135113A. Sobel1.65112111162LSep 1 · 11:00A. Sobel1.937811111B. Czerwinski1.7811118133WSep 1 · 09:50A. Sobel1.712111111113S. Brud1.9711135942
Upcoming Matches
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A. Sobel
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