TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058218
Played Sep 1Finished
Gracjan Kesik
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111121311511116
Artur Sobel
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:54 and never touched — 69.0% is still 69.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
69.0%
69.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
6111121311511116
H2H Gracjan Kesik 3–9 Artur Sobel Gracjan Kesik has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:54What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Sobel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Sobel
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kesik 1488 vs Sobel 1579
Sobel
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kesik 20% vs Sobel 80%
Sobel
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kesik 30% vs Sobel 70%
Sobel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kesik -3 · Sobel +1
Kesik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sobel) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKesik 2.10 / Sobel 1.65
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Sobel)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13058218
Kesik2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 61 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back33% 24 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Sobel1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 184 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it94% 83 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it78% 136 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKesik1wins
AwaySobel9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSobel leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKesik33.3%1 of 3
AwaySobel100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kesik3Sobel7n = 10Sobel took 7 of 10
S2Kesik4Sobel6n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S3Kesik6Sobel4n = 10Kesik took 6 of 10
S4Kesik1Sobel6n = 7Sobel took 6 of 7
S5Kesik0Sobel4n = 4Sobel took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKesikSobelK − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.942.1−5.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKesikSobelBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 577 vs 638 / 118953.9%53.7%311 / 577 vs 638 / 1189Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobelKesik 2.10/Sobel 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kesik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:00G. Kesik—8770A. Sobel—1111113
LAug 31 · 11:50G. Kesik—12101081A. Sobel—101212113
LAug 31 · 03:40G. Kesik—511971A. Sobel—11911113
LApr 10 · 16:15G. Kesik—711139102A. Sobel—1191111123
LApr 10 · 11:50G. Kesik—911111092A. Sobel—118712113
LApr 6 · 20:05G. Kesik—11611672A. Sobel—811611113
WApr 6 · 11:25G. Kesik—1111113A. Sobel—7990
LApr 6 · 06:55G. Kesik—69131152A. Sobel—1111115113
LFeb 27 · 17:15G. Kesik—861291A. Sobel—111110113
LFeb 27 · 12:50G. Kesik—39100A. Sobel—1111123
G. Kesik10
LSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113WSep 1 · 13:05G. Kesik2.2291111113S. Brud1.57118981LSep 1 · 10:10G. Kesik1.991011911102P. Blocho1.70129115123LSep 1 · 09:00G. Kesik1.83311591K. Rudomina1.8311811113LSep 1 · 07:40D. Kosmal1.371111113G. Kesik2.758780WSep 1 · 06:50S. Brud1.608101181G. Kesik2.2011127113LSep 1 · 06:00G. Kesik1.858770A. Sobel1.851111113LSep 1 · 04:25G. Kesik2.4011118832J. Zochniak1.50491111113WSep 1 · 03:40M. Minda1.46127311102G. Kesik2.461011115123WAug 31 · 14:40G. Kesik1.7013511113B. Mleczko1.951111751
A. Sobel10
LSep 7 · 07:40J. Zochniak1.72119119133A. Sobel2.00711811112LSep 7 · 06:50M. Sklensky1.471112133A. Sobel2.45610110WSep 7 · 06:00A. Sobel2.60121111113K. Wisniewski1.42149591WSep 7 · 04:25A. Sobel2.2011116113D. Solilo1.57221111WSep 7 · 03:40M. Minda1.95711101182A. Sobel1.76119129113LSep 1 · 14:20A. Sobel1.9311128992K. Rudomina1.775101111113LSep 1 · 12:40P. Blocho2.001111113A. Sobel1.709830LSep 1 · 11:00A. Sobel1.937811111B. Czerwinski1.7811118133WSep 1 · 09:50A. Sobel1.712111111113S. Brud1.9711135942WSep 1 · 06:00G. Kesik1.858770A. Sobel1.851111113
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