TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13051722
Played Aug 31Finished
Artur Sobel
Home
1.55
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611114711711––
Bartlomiej Mleczko
Away
2.24
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
611114711711––
H2H Artur Sobel 9–3 Bartlomiej Mleczko Bartlomiej Mleczko has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Sobel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Sobel
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1532 vs Mleczko 1477
Sobel
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 20% vs Mleczko 80%
Mleczko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 40% vs Mleczko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel +1 · Mleczko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Sobel) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mleczko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 1.55 / Mleczko 2.24
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Sobel)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13051722
Sobel1.55
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 181 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it94% 83 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it78% 134 of 171
Mleczko2.24
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 58 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobel7wins
AwayMleczko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSobel leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobel85.7%6 of 7
AwayMleczko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel7Mleczko3n = 10Sobel took 7 of 10
S2Sobel8Mleczko2n = 10Sobel took 8 of 10
S3Sobel5Mleczko5n = 10split evenly
S4Sobel5Mleczko3n = 8Sobel took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobelMleczkoS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.135.6+4.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelMleczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime635 / 1187 vs 433 / 82653.5%52.4%635 / 1187 vs 433 / 826Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobelSobel 1.55/Mleczko 2.24
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.7%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mleczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 31 · 15:05A. Sobel—12114113B. Mleczko—1091181
WMay 18 · 12:15A. Sobel—1111113B. Mleczko—6460
LApr 6 · 17:20A. Sobel—1191381B. Mleczko—91115113
WApr 6 · 09:00A. Sobel—91111113B. Mleczko—117491
LApr 6 · 03:50A. Sobel—91111682B. Mleczko—119911113
WJan 5 · 17:35A. Sobel—141314113B. Mleczko—12111641
WDec 15 · 19:30A. Sobel—1112113B. Mleczko—51060
LDec 15 · 15:40A. Sobel—6117101B. Mleczko—11911123
WSep 29 · 16:15A. Sobel—11711153B. Mleczko—9112131
WSep 29 · 11:50A. Sobel—11124113B. Mleczko—3101181
A. Sobel10
LSep 7 · 07:40J. Zochniak1.72119119133A. Sobel2.00711811112LSep 7 · 06:50M. Sklensky1.471112133A. Sobel2.45610110WSep 7 · 06:00A. Sobel2.60121111113K. Wisniewski1.42149591WSep 7 · 04:25A. Sobel2.2011116113D. Solilo1.57221111WSep 7 · 03:40M. Minda1.95711101182A. Sobel1.76119129113LSep 1 · 14:20A. Sobel1.9311128992K. Rudomina1.775101111113LSep 1 · 12:40P. Blocho2.001111113A. Sobel1.709830LSep 1 · 11:50G. Kesik2.10611135113A. Sobel1.65112111162LSep 1 · 11:00A. Sobel1.937811111B. Czerwinski1.7811118133WSep 1 · 09:50A. Sobel1.712111111113S. Brud1.9711135942
B. Mleczko10
LAug 31 · 14:40G. Kesik1.7013511113B. Mleczko1.951111751WAug 31 · 13:30B. Mleczko2.0091111123M. Minda1.701186101LAug 31 · 12:15P. Blocho1.85111110113B. Mleczko1.85661271WAug 31 · 09:25J. Przewlocki2.5078111172B. Mleczko1.44111199113WAug 31 · 07:40S. Wnek2.7014460B. Mleczko1.391611113LAug 31 · 06:55J. Przewlocki2.4511711113B. Mleczko1.49911581WAug 31 · 06:05B. Mleczko1.291111113M. Lukaszewski3.156680WAug 31 · 04:30B. Mleczko1.95871111123P. Blocho1.70111117102LAug 31 · 03:50D. Solilo1.73115119113B. Mleczko1.9881171182WAug 29 · 13:50D. Kosmal1.52511671B. Mleczko2.3011311113
Upcoming Matches
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