TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112018
Played Sep 11Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
1.92
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118411118116––
Mateusz Misiak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:33 and never touched — 60.6% is still 60.6%
Graded at full timeBartosz Sulkowski to win
60.6%
60.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
118411118116––
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 22–16 Mateusz Misiak Mateusz Misiak has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:33What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (53%)
Misiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-16 in 38
Sulkowski
Correct
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1502 vs Misiak 1353
Sulkowski
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 40% vs Misiak 60%
Misiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 60% vs Misiak 40%
Sulkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski +1 · Misiak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.92 / Misiak 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulkowski)+6.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13112018
Sulkowski1.92
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog33% won 169 of 518
Down 0–1, comes back17% 51 of 299
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 140
Misiak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 220 of 366
Up 2–0, closes it96% 133 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it81% 178 of 219
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski5wins
AwayMisiak5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski83.3%5 of 6
AwayMisiak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski6Misiak4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S2Sulkowski7Misiak3n = 10Sulkowski took 7 of 10
S3Sulkowski5Misiak5n = 10split evenly
S4Sulkowski4Misiak5n = 9Misiak took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiMisiakS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.337.6+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiMisiakBasisWin rate · lifetime554 / 1252 vs 1052 / 198344.3%53.1%554 / 1252 vs 1052 / 1983Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiSulkowski 1.92/Misiak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 21:30B. Sulkowski—11611123M. Misiak—4117101
LAug 22 · 17:45B. Sulkowski—511111172M. Misiak—117713113
LAug 21 · 04:30B. Sulkowski—11811111M. Misiak—13117133
WAug 7 · 09:00B. Sulkowski—11115113M. Misiak—751141
WJul 2 · 06:55B. Sulkowski—1211113M. Misiak—10450
LJul 2 · 04:30B. Sulkowski—11118572M. Misiak—891111113
WJun 27 · 06:25B. Sulkowski—14117113M. Misiak—1291171
LJun 27 · 04:00B. Sulkowski—1391471M. Misiak—151112113
WJun 26 · 12:40B. Sulkowski—11118113M. Misiak—251181
LJun 19 · 12:40B. Sulkowski—1011781M. Misiak—12711113
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 11 · 10:10B. Sulkowski1.751111113R. Stapor1.959880LSep 11 · 09:00B. Sulkowski2.201151181B. Czerwinski1.5871113113LSep 11 · 07:40K. Wisniewski1.2211118123B. Sulkowski3.756511101WSep 11 · 06:50D. Solilo1.8559100B. Sulkowski1.801111123LSep 11 · 06:00B. Sulkowski1.9311911562B. Mleczko1.78711911113LSep 11 · 04:25B. Sulkowski1.91811712102A. Linek1.801161110123WSep 11 · 03:40D. Kosmal1.30111171142B. Sulkowski3.10139115113WSep 10 · 14:20B. Sulkowski2.4513711113D. Solilo1.491111991WSep 10 · 12:40A. Linek1.95711581B. Sulkowski1.7511411113WSep 10 · 11:50M. Misiak1.808960B. Sulkowski1.901111113
M. Misiak10
LSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150LSep 11 · 11:00M. Misiak1.801166101M. Zagajewski1.8691111123WSep 11 · 09:50M. Misiak1.95116411133B. Mleczko1.74911117112LSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113WSep 11 · 06:55M. Misiak1.90611611113J. Glanowski1.8211811982WSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak1.80121211113M. Zagajewski1.861014771LSep 11 · 04:10M. Misiak1.56812101192M. Trela2.181110126113WSep 11 · 03:00M. Misiak1.46111114113B. Wisniewski2.55881691LSep 10 · 14:40M. Misiak2.40511741B. Czerwinski1.5011811113LSep 10 · 11:50M. Misiak1.808960B. Sulkowski1.901111113
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