TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112400
Played Sep 11Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191161715––––
Mateusz Misiak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:33 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
1191161715––––
H2H Rafal Stapor 18–10 Mateusz Misiak Mateusz Misiak has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Stapor beat Misiak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:33What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Misiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-10 in 28
Stapor
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1409 vs Misiak 1345
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 20% vs Misiak 40%
Misiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Misiak 40%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -3 · Misiak -2
Stapor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Misiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.83 / Misiak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stapor)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13112400
Stapor1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Misiak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor7wins
AwayMisiak3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor100%6 of 6
AwayMisiak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor6Misiak4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S2Stapor7Misiak3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S3Stapor6Misiak4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S4Stapor6Misiak1n = 7Stapor took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporMisiakS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.835.4+4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporMisiakBasisWin rate · lifetime645 / 1143 vs 1052 / 198456.4%53%645 / 1143 vs 1052 / 1984Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.83/Misiak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 08:35R. Stapor—11119113M. Misiak—871161
WAug 30 · 24:10R. Stapor—111111113M. Misiak—851391
WAug 29 · 16:15R. Stapor—41111113M. Misiak—117871
LAug 28 · 09:00R. Stapor—91111962M. Misiak—119811113
WAug 22 · 20:05R. Stapor—1111113M. Misiak—8670
LAug 21 · 13:30R. Stapor—8580M. Misiak—1111113
WAug 7 · 03:20R. Stapor—11911133M. Misiak—9118111
WJul 2 · 12:15R. Stapor—1111113M. Misiak—5490
LJul 1 · 05:40R. Stapor—9161011102M. Misiak—1114127123
WJul 1 · 03:25R. Stapor—11911113M. Misiak—911891
R. Stapor10
LSep 11 · 11:25R. Stapor1.858970B. Czerwinski1.801111113LSep 11 · 10:10B. Sulkowski1.751111113R. Stapor1.959880LSep 11 · 09:25R. Stapor1.7613129892M. Zagajewski1.9011101111113WSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113LSep 11 · 07:20R. Stapor1.358911111B. Wisniewski2.8011113133WSep 11 · 06:05J. Glanowski1.721181081R. Stapor1.9261112113WSep 11 · 04:55M. Zagajewski1.95119871R. Stapor1.7061111113WSep 11 · 03:25M. Trela1.9511712922R. Stapor1.759111011113WSep 10 · 08:05F. Krcil1.90811121092R. Stapor1.801111012113WSep 10 · 07:15P. Blocho1.6371151182R. Stapor2.06115115113
M. Misiak10
LSep 11 · 11:50B. Sulkowski1.9211411113M. Misiak1.73811861LSep 11 · 11:00M. Misiak1.801166101M. Zagajewski1.8691111123WSep 11 · 09:50M. Misiak1.95116411133B. Mleczko1.74911117112LSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113WSep 11 · 06:55M. Misiak1.90611611113J. Glanowski1.8211811982WSep 11 · 05:40M. Misiak1.80121211113M. Zagajewski1.861014771LSep 11 · 04:10M. Misiak1.56812101192M. Trela2.181110126113WSep 11 · 03:00M. Misiak1.46111114113B. Wisniewski2.55881691LSep 10 · 14:40M. Misiak2.40511741B. Czerwinski1.5011811113LSep 10 · 13:05M. Misiak2.13571111P. Blocho1.5811117113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.