TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119376
Played Sep 12Finished
Filip Mlynarski
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111156111214––
Maciej Kolek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 76 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Filip Mlynarski at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mlynarski 7–1 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mlynarski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mlynarski 1712 vs Kolek 1645
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mlynarski 100% vs Kolek 40%
Mlynarski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mlynarski 50% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mlynarski +5 · Kolek +1
Mlynarski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMlynarski 1.50 / Kolek 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Mlynarski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13119376
Mlynarski1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 141 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it80% 102 of 128
Kolek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 188 of 469
Down 0–1, comes back22% 61 of 278
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMlynarski7wins
AwayKolek1wins
2 of 8 to a deciderMlynarski leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMlynarski100%5 of 5
AwayKolek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mlynarski5Kolek3n = 8Mlynarski took 5 of 8
S2Mlynarski5Kolek3n = 8Mlynarski took 5 of 8
S3Mlynarski6Kolek2n = 8Mlynarski took 6 of 8
S4Mlynarski3Kolek0n = 3Mlynarski took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMlynarskiKolekM − KBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.531.0+7.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMlynarskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 298 vs 689 / 138956.4%49.6%168 / 298 vs 689 / 1389Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiMlynarski 1.50/Kolek 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 12 · 20:30F. Mlynarski331111113M. Kolek192980
WJul 5 · 23:55F. Mlynarski341112113M. Kolek2121090
WJul 5 · 21:45F. Mlynarski341112113M. Kolek2251070
WJul 4 · 23:15F. Mlynarski52791114113M. Kolek47111161272
WJul 4 · 21:00F. Mlynarski381411133M. Kolek27124110
LJul 4 · 17:40F. Mlynarski2869130M. Kolek371111153
WJun 14 · 17:05F. Mlynarski521111811113M. Kolek4971311992
WJun 13 · 17:55F. Mlynarski3741111113M. Kolek26115551
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 12 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.6131111592F. Mlynarski2.20113711113WSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113WSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192WSep 12 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.6711711133P. Jendrzejewski2.106119111WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172LSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113
M. Kolek10
WSep 12 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.53411111172M. Kolek2.38118913113LSep 12 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.36111188113M. Kolek3.0068111192LSep 12 · 16:30P. Jendrzejewski1.61111282113M. Kolek2.20610111152LSep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.731011115113M. Kolek2.0012561162WSep 12 · 14:15G. Kesik2.5513580M. Kolek1.451511113LSep 12 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz1.80127811113M. Kolek1.90101111882LSep 12 · 11:20K. Rudomina2.30411116113M. Kolek1.5211791182WSep 12 · 10:30R. Malinowski2.60117791M. Kolek1.4261111113LSep 12 · 09:00D. Solilo2.001111113M. Kolek1.717860WSep 11 · 13:50K. Staszczyk1.8041111442M. Kolek1.90116711113
Upcoming Matches
F. Mlynarski2 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 21:25F. Mlynarski1.80T. Filbrandt1.91—Sep 12 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.44M. Marchlewski2.63—Sep 12 · 22:55F. Mlynarski1.80P. Jendrzejewski1.91—Sep 13 · 24:35F. Mlynarski1.83D. Jadam1.83—Sep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski—M. Kolek——Sep 13 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 13 · 20:30F. Mlynarski—D. Jadam——Sep 13 · 21:00F. Mlynarski—M. Rutkowski——
M. Kolek4 of 10 neutral
Sep 13 · 09:20M. Kolek—P. Maruszak——Sep 13 · 10:55M. Kolek—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 12:10M. Kolek—D. Solilo——Sep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek—M. Piecowski——Sep 13 · 14:35M. Kolek—T. Piotrowski——Sep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek—D. Jadam——Sep 13 · 16:05M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——Sep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek—L. Pietraszko——Sep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek—K. Staszczyk——
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