TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119095
Played Sep 12Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
2.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8116111012––––
Gracjan Kesik
Away
1.41
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:14 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeGracjan Kesik to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
8116111012––––
H2H Dawid Kotwica 3–8 Gracjan Kesik Dawid Kotwica has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (64%)
Kesik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Kesik
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1275 vs Kesik 1492
Kesik
Correct
both rated, 217 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 40% vs Kesik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 30% vs Kesik 50%
Kesik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica -1 · Kesik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kesik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kesik form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 2.55 / Kesik 1.41
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Kesik)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13119095
Kotwica2.55
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 145 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back18% 42 of 238
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 148
Kesik1.41
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 79 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotwica3wins
AwayKesik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKesik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica50%2 of 4
AwayKesik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica4Kesik6n = 10Kesik took 6 of 10
S2Kotwica5Kesik5n = 10split evenly
S3Kotwica3Kesik7n = 10Kesik took 7 of 10
S4Kotwica0Kesik6n = 6Kesik took 6 of 6
S5Kotwica2Kesik1n = 3Kotwica took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotwicaKesikKotwica − KesikBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.040.9−6.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime634 / 1541 vs 318 / 58941.1%54%634 / 1541 vs 318 / 589Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KesikKotwica 2.55/Kesik 1.41
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Kesik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kesik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 3 · 16:40D. Kotwica188550G. Kesik331111113
LApr 17 · 19:50D. Kotwica31156911G. Kesik46131111113
LApr 17 · 10:55D. Kotwica3711511822G. Kesik50811911113
LApr 6 · 17:45D. Kotwica28911621G. Kesik4011711113
LFeb 28 · 18:00D. Kotwica175750G. Kesik331111113
LFeb 1 · 18:00D. Kotwica411212981G. Kesik46141011113
WNov 21 · 23:35D. Kotwica331111113G. Kesik178450
WNov 1 · 12:05D. Kotwica54111369153G. Kesik548111111132
LJul 5 · 15:55D. Kotwica2461170G. Kesik351113113
WJul 4 · 17:45D. Kotwica57913139133G. Kesik5511111111112
D. Kotwica10
LSep 12 · 18:30D. Kotwica2.15571131R. Stapor1.6211119113WSep 12 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.801111113W. Gluszek1.908870LSep 12 · 16:15K. Marchlewski2.35681111113D. Kotwica1.4811119772LSep 12 · 15:25D. Kotwica3.50613951A. Wos1.25111111113WSep 4 · 23:20K. Golaszewski2.15711781D. Kotwica1.6011811113LSep 4 · 22:35K. Sulkowski1.85811611133D. Kotwica1.85113119112WSep 4 · 22:15D. Kotwica1.5711118113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191LSep 4 · 21:05S. Wnek2.1511711113D. Kotwica1.62511731LSep 4 · 20:30D. Kotwica1.904880K. Golaszewski1.801111113LSep 4 · 18:55D. Kotwica1.47119741P. Strus2.5081111113
G. Kesik10
WSep 12 · 18:55K. Marchlewski2.70113661G. Kesik1.4091111113LSep 12 · 18:10G. Kesik2.4110810A. Wos1.461211113WSep 12 · 16:35G. Kesik1.411111810113W. Gluszek2.6059111262LSep 12 · 15:50R. Stapor1.9613115113G. Kesik1.701161191LSep 12 · 14:15G. Kesik2.5513580M. Kolek1.451511113WSep 12 · 12:35K. Rudomina1.851011961G. Kesik1.8512911113WSep 12 · 11:45D. Solilo1.589101471G. Kesik2.13111212113LSep 12 · 10:55G. Kesik1.7511116262G. Poliniewicz1.90641111113WSep 12 · 09:45G. Kesik1.90111011113R. Malinowski1.80612761LSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Kotwica1 of 5 neutral
G. Kesik2 of 3 neutral
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