TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119126
Played Sep 12Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
2.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611811119117117
Dawid Kotwica
Away
1.48
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
611811119117117
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 5–7 Dawid Kotwica Kacper Marchlewski has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (61%)
Kotwica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Kotwica
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1195 vs Kotwica 1284
Kotwica
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 20% vs Kotwica 40%
Kotwica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Kotwica 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +1 · Kotwica -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kotwica) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (40%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.35 / Kotwica 1.48
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Kotwica)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119126
Marchlewski2.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Kotwica1.48
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 70 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it76% 51 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski4wins
AwayKotwica6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKotwica leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski66.7%2 of 3
AwayKotwica71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski3Kotwica7n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S2Marchlewski4Kotwica6n = 10Kotwica took 6 of 10
S3Marchlewski5Kotwica5n = 10split evenly
S4Marchlewski1Kotwica6n = 7Kotwica took 6 of 7
S5Marchlewski3Kotwica1n = 4Marchlewski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiKotwicaM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.741.2−3.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 342 vs 633 / 153843.6%41.2%149 / 342 vs 633 / 1538Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotwicaMarchlewski 2.35/Kotwica 1.48
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.6%
Kotwica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 3 · 13:10K. Marchlewski246990D. Kotwica331111113
LDec 20 · 02:35K. Marchlewski32491181D. Kotwica4011117113
LDec 20 · 24:05K. Marchlewski207850D. Kotwica331111113
WAug 30 · 13:00K. Marchlewski45119122113D. Kotwica49911101182
WApr 21 · 24:15K. Marchlewski5811121311113D. Kotwica52610151382
LApr 20 · 21:50K. Marchlewski50131110972D. Kotwica491141211113
WApr 20 · 20:10K. Marchlewski4291111113D. Kotwica34117971
LApr 20 · 24:40K. Marchlewski32951171D. Kotwica4211119113
LApr 19 · 22:15K. Marchlewski2381050D. Kotwica341112113
WMar 10 · 24:50K. Marchlewski51811129113D. Kotwica46117101172
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 12 · 15:00K. Marchlewski2.2511111013113W. Gluszek1.5775121582LSep 12 · 13:55J. Rolak1.741111123K. Marchlewski1.9594100LSep 12 · 13:05I. Dabrowski1.30461111113K. Marchlewski3.0011118162LSep 12 · 12:15K. Marchlewski3.506111141J. Glanowski1.2511134113LSep 12 · 10:35K. Marchlewski3.257712101P. Maruszak1.26111110123LSep 12 · 09:50J. Przewlocki1.6211111511113K. Marchlewski2.1561317452LSep 12 · 24:10K. Marchlewski2.0594100M. Lukaszewski1.681111123WSep 11 · 23:20K. Marchlewski2.3011611113K. Sulkowski1.55711271WSep 11 · 21:55K. Marchlewski1.9511711113D. Poloszczanski1.75711791WSep 11 · 21:30K. Marchlewski2.20915118143W. Gluszek1.571113311122
D. Kotwica10
LSep 12 · 15:25D. Kotwica3.50613951A. Wos1.25111111113WSep 4 · 23:20K. Golaszewski2.15711781D. Kotwica1.6011811113LSep 4 · 22:35K. Sulkowski1.85811611133D. Kotwica1.85113119112WSep 4 · 22:15D. Kotwica1.5711118113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191LSep 4 · 21:05S. Wnek2.1511711113D. Kotwica1.62511731LSep 4 · 20:30D. Kotwica1.904880K. Golaszewski1.801111113LSep 4 · 18:55D. Kotwica1.47119741P. Strus2.5081111113WSep 4 · 17:45D. Kotwica2.20121011113D. Szlubowski1.571012651LSep 4 · 16:15D. Kotwica1.7591191192D. Poloszczanski1.95118118113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Kotwica1.901311113S. Wnek1.7511650
Upcoming Matches
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