TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114354
Played Sep 11Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711117119––
Dawid Poloszczanski
Away
1.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:24 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeKacper Marchlewski to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
117711117119––
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 14–8 Dawid Poloszczanski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:24What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Poloszczanski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-8 in 22
Marchlewski
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1193 vs Poloszczanski 1233
Poloszczanski
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 20% vs Poloszczanski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 30% vs Poloszczanski 10%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +1 · Poloszczanski -4
Poloszczanski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Poloszczanski) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.95 / Poloszczanski 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Poloszczanski)+1.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114354
Marchlewski1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Poloszczanski1.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 54 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it81% 39 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski5wins
AwayPoloszczanski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski50%4 of 8
AwayPoloszczanskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski8Poloszczanski2n = 10Marchlewski took 8 of 10
S2Marchlewski5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S3Marchlewski3Poloszczanski7n = 10Poloszczanski took 7 of 10
S4Marchlewski3Poloszczanski5n = 8Poloszczanski took 5 of 8
S5Marchlewski2Poloszczanski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiPoloszczanskiM − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.4−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 333 vs 333 / 84643.8%39.4%146 / 333 vs 333 / 846Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoloszczanskiMarchlewski 1.95/Poloszczanski 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Poloszczanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 14 · 09:25K. Marchlewski—13115972D. Poloszczanski—1181111113
LJun 14 · 04:10K. Marchlewski—31170D. Poloszczanski—1113113
WJun 13 · 13:30K. Marchlewski—41111113D. Poloszczanski—119891
LJun 13 · 07:45K. Marchlewski—111081192D. Poloszczanski—312116113
LJun 12 · 17:55K. Marchlewski—116261D. Poloszczanski—91111113
LApr 5 · 11:25K. Marchlewski—1146101D. Poloszczanski—41111123
WApr 5 · 03:00K. Marchlewski—1111113D. Poloszczanski—5880
WDec 21 · 12:20K. Marchlewski—1111912133D. Poloszczanski—291114112
WNov 23 · 14:25K. Marchlewski—111210133D. Poloszczanski—71012111
WNov 23 · 08:05K. Marchlewski—114119113D. Poloszczanski—91191192
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 11 · 21:30K. Marchlewski2.20915118143W. Gluszek1.571113311122LSep 11 · 20:30K. Sulkowski1.52101112163K. Marchlewski2.3012810141LSep 11 · 19:20K. Marchlewski2.007119111M. Lukaszewski1.7011711133LSep 11 · 18:10P. Strus1.801212113K. Marchlewski1.91101060LSep 11 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.5711118113K. Marchlewski2.25971171LSep 11 · 15:25W. Gluszek1.751111113K. Marchlewski1.959750WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113LSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991
D. Poloszczanski10
WSep 11 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski1.85511611113K. Sulkowski1.8011311752LSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113LSep 5 · 23:45K. Kufel1.601111113D. Poloszczanski2.103260LSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133LSep 5 · 21:55A. Lilien1.221112113D. Poloszczanski3.7041030WSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:30D. Poloszczanski2.47911110J. Michalczyk1.461113133LSep 5 · 17:20D. Poloszczanski—111251192K. Kufel—1310118113LSep 5 · 16:15B. Sulkowski1.6011116113D. Poloszczanski2.15791181LSep 5 · 15:25D. Poloszczanski3.50119101172A. Lilien1.25911128113
Upcoming Matches
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