TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113619
Played Sep 11Finished
Piotr Strus
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101210116––––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:35 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timePiotr Strus to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
61 points played in total.
Set by set
12101210116––––
H2H Piotr Strus 6–2 Kacper Marchlewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:35What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Strus
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strus 1181 vs Marchlewski 1210
Marchlewski
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strus 20% vs Marchlewski 40%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strus 20% vs Marchlewski 40%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strus -2 · Marchlewski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marchlewski) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrus 1.80 / Marchlewski 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marchlewski)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13113619
Strus1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite40% won 42 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it69% 29 of 42
Marchlewski1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStrus6wins
AwayMarchlewski2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderStrus leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrus100%6 of 6
AwayMarchlewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strus6Marchlewski2n = 8Strus took 6 of 8
S2Strus6Marchlewski2n = 8Strus took 6 of 8
S3Strus5Marchlewski3n = 8Strus took 5 of 8
S4Strus3Marchlewski1n = 4Strus took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricStrusMarchlewskiS − MBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match36.232.2+4.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrusMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 843 vs 145 / 32945.8%44.1%386 / 843 vs 145 / 329Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiStrus 1.80/Marchlewski 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Strus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 2 · 19:40P. Strus—5670K. Marchlewski—1111113
WAug 5 · 18:10P. Strus—1211113K. Marchlewski—10690
WJul 17 · 15:50P. Strus—11116113K. Marchlewski—941141
WJun 12 · 16:45P. Strus—11911133K. Marchlewski—7118111
WNov 22 · 07:05P. Strus—1511113K. Marchlewski—13470
WAug 30 · 09:45P. Strus—1111133K. Marchlewski—98110
WJul 26 · 05:15P. Strus—14115113K. Marchlewski—1291181
LApr 20 · 11:50P. Strus—71111672K. Marchlewski—117311113
P. Strus10
LSep 11 · 16:35P. Strus1.84119101192M. Lukaszewski1.79911129113LSep 11 · 15:50D. Szlubowski1.43611119113P. Strus2.5011451162WSep 9 · 19:40K. Golaszewski1.85117111172P. Strus1.85131198113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Trela1.561111113P. Strus2.176750LSep 9 · 18:10P. Strus2.507850A. Myszewski1.461111113WSep 9 · 16:35P. Strus1.8091111113P. Ostachowski1.86113571LSep 9 · 15:50K. Klocek1.501111113P. Strus2.327680LSep 7 · 19:40B. Mrugala1.831111113P. Strus1.838870LSep 7 · 18:55W. Iwasyszyn1.631111113P. Strus2.064890LSep 7 · 18:10P. Strus2.203111181M. Trela1.6011613113
K. Marchlewski10
LSep 11 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.5711118113K. Marchlewski2.25971171LSep 11 · 15:25W. Gluszek1.751111113K. Marchlewski1.959750WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113LSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991WSep 2 · 19:40K. Marchlewski2.001111113P. Strus1.735670LSep 2 · 18:30K. Marchlewski2.24811881W. Gluszek1.5511911113WSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182LSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172
Upcoming Matches
P. Strus
K. Marchlewski
Sep 11 · 19:20K. Marchlewski2.05M. Lukaszewski1.66—Sep 11 · 20:30K. Marchlewski2.40K. Sulkowski1.50—Sep 11 · 21:30K. Marchlewski2.22W. Gluszek1.54—Sep 11 · 21:55K. Marchlewski2.08D. Poloszczanski1.62—Sep 11 · 23:20K. Marchlewski2.46K. Sulkowski1.44—Sep 12 · 24:10K. Marchlewski2.04M. Lukaszewski1.64—
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