TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114381
Played Sep 11Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111179111113––
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
1.70
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMikolaj Lukaszewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
7111179111113––
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 5–4 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Lukaszewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1195 vs Lukaszewski 1326
Lukaszewski
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 40% vs Lukaszewski 80%
Lukaszewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Lukaszewski 80%
Lukaszewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -3 · Lukaszewski +2
Marchlewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Lukaszewski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.00 / Lukaszewski 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Lukaszewski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114381
Marchlewski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Lukaszewski1.70
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 105 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it98% 44 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it80% 85 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMarchlewski5wins
AwayLukaszewski4wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMarchlewski leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski75%3 of 4
AwayLukaszewski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski4Lukaszewski5n = 9Lukaszewski took 5 of 9
S2Marchlewski3Lukaszewski6n = 9Lukaszewski took 6 of 9
S3Marchlewski6Lukaszewski3n = 9Marchlewski took 6 of 9
S4Marchlewski6Lukaszewski3n = 9Marchlewski took 6 of 9
S5Marchlewski2Lukaszewski2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiLukaszewskiM − LBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match41.941.3+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 330 vs 918 / 200543.9%45.8%145 / 330 vs 918 / 2005Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukaszewskiMarchlewski 2.00/Lukaszewski 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Lukaszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 30 · 05:15K. Marchlewski—11911113M. Lukaszewski—711441
LAug 6 · 15:00K. Marchlewski—11571172M. Lukaszewski—711118113
WAug 5 · 21:30K. Marchlewski—11411113M. Lukaszewski—711991
WMay 1 · 21:10K. Marchlewski—1181011113M. Lukaszewski—91112752
LApr 5 · 13:55K. Marchlewski—641191M. Lukaszewski—11119113
WMar 22 · 19:10K. Marchlewski—1411118113M. Lukaszewski—16381162
LJul 26 · 10:05K. Marchlewski—51161172M. Lukaszewski—117115113
WJul 3 · 19:30K. Marchlewski—51119113M. Lukaszewski—1161791
LJul 1 · 16:45K. Marchlewski—1061271M. Lukaszewski—121110113
K. Marchlewski10
LSep 11 · 18:10P. Strus1.801212113K. Marchlewski1.91101060LSep 11 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.5711118113K. Marchlewski2.25971171LSep 11 · 15:25W. Gluszek1.751111113K. Marchlewski1.959750WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113LSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991WSep 2 · 19:40K. Marchlewski2.001111113P. Strus1.735670LSep 2 · 18:30K. Marchlewski2.24811881W. Gluszek1.5511911113WSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 11 · 17:20W. Gluszek1.75611491M. Lukaszewski1.9511911113WSep 11 · 16:35P. Strus1.84119101192M. Lukaszewski1.79911129113LSep 11 · 15:00K. Sulkowski1.6511126113M. Lukaszewski2.108101171WSep 10 · 23:20J. Rolak1.80711991M. Lukaszewski1.8511511113WSep 10 · 22:35M. Trela1.757970M. Lukaszewski1.951111113WSep 10 · 22:15M. Lukaszewski1.841111113K. Golaszewski1.808660WSep 10 · 21:05K. Klocek1.41521181M. Lukaszewski2.5511113113LSep 10 · 20:30M. Lukaszewski1.91671171J. Rolak1.7311115113WSep 10 · 18:55M. Lukaszewski1.95119811113B. Wisniewski1.7491111792WSep 10 · 17:45M. Lukaszewski1.84111111113K. Golaszewski1.80971391
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