TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115046
Played Sep 12Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9114111012––––
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
1.68
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMikolaj Lukaszewski to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
9114111012––––
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 5–6 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Lukaszewski beat Marchlewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Lukaszewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1227 vs Lukaszewski 1363
Lukaszewski
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Lukaszewski 80%
Lukaszewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 50% vs Lukaszewski 80%
Lukaszewski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +3 · Lukaszewski -1
Marchlewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lukaszewski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.05 / Lukaszewski 1.68
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Lukaszewski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13115046
Marchlewski2.05
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Lukaszewski1.68
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 105 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it98% 44 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it80% 85 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski5wins
AwayLukaszewski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski75%3 of 4
AwayLukaszewski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski4Lukaszewski6n = 10Lukaszewski took 6 of 10
S2Marchlewski4Lukaszewski6n = 10Lukaszewski took 6 of 10
S3Marchlewski5Lukaszewski5n = 10split evenly
S4Marchlewski6Lukaszewski3n = 9Marchlewski took 6 of 9
S5Marchlewski2Lukaszewski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiLukaszewskiM − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.4−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 336 vs 923 / 201144.1%45.9%148 / 336 vs 923 / 2011Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukaszewskiMarchlewski 2.05/Lukaszewski 1.68
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Lukaszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 24:10K. Marchlewski—94100M. Lukaszewski—1111123
LSep 11 · 19:20K. Marchlewski—7119111M. Lukaszewski—11711133
WAug 30 · 05:15K. Marchlewski—11911113M. Lukaszewski—711441
LAug 6 · 15:00K. Marchlewski—11571172M. Lukaszewski—711118113
WAug 5 · 21:30K. Marchlewski—11411113M. Lukaszewski—711991
WMay 1 · 21:10K. Marchlewski—1181011113M. Lukaszewski—91112752
LApr 5 · 13:55K. Marchlewski—641191M. Lukaszewski—11119113
WMar 22 · 19:10K. Marchlewski—1411118113M. Lukaszewski—16381162
LJul 26 · 10:05K. Marchlewski—51161172M. Lukaszewski—117115113
WJul 3 · 19:30K. Marchlewski—51119113M. Lukaszewski—1161791
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 11 · 23:20K. Marchlewski2.3011611113K. Sulkowski1.55711271WSep 11 · 21:55K. Marchlewski1.9511711113D. Poloszczanski1.75711791WSep 11 · 21:30K. Marchlewski2.20915118143W. Gluszek1.571113311122LSep 11 · 20:30K. Sulkowski1.52101112163K. Marchlewski2.3012810141LSep 11 · 19:20K. Marchlewski2.007119111M. Lukaszewski1.7011711133LSep 11 · 18:10P. Strus1.801212113K. Marchlewski1.91101060LSep 11 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.5711118113K. Marchlewski2.25971171LSep 11 · 15:25W. Gluszek1.751111113K. Marchlewski1.959750WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113
M. Lukaszewski10
LSep 11 · 23:45M. Lukaszewski1.90111191092D. Poloszczanski1.80461112113WSep 11 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski1.8511814113W. Gluszek1.856111271WSep 11 · 21:05M. Lukaszewski2.151111113K. Sulkowski1.617880WSep 11 · 20:05D. Szlubowski1.607121491M. Lukaszewski2.20111016113WSep 11 · 19:20K. Marchlewski2.007119111M. Lukaszewski1.7011711133WSep 11 · 17:20W. Gluszek1.75611491M. Lukaszewski1.9511911113WSep 11 · 16:35P. Strus1.84119101192M. Lukaszewski1.79911129113LSep 11 · 15:00K. Sulkowski1.6511126113M. Lukaszewski2.108101171WSep 10 · 23:20J. Rolak1.80711991M. Lukaszewski1.8511511113WSep 10 · 22:35M. Trela1.757970M. Lukaszewski1.951111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Marchlewski1 of 1 neutral
M. Lukaszewski
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.