TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114784
Played Sep 11Finished
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1168111412117––
Wojciech Gluszek
Away
1.85
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:16 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeWojciech Gluszek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
1168111412117––
H2H Mikolaj Lukaszewski 32–48 Wojciech Gluszek Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 32 of their 80 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Lukaszewski beat Gluszek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:16What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Gluszek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-48 in 80
Gluszek
Wrong
gap of 16 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukaszewski 1360 vs Gluszek 1262
Lukaszewski
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukaszewski 100% vs Gluszek 40%
Lukaszewski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukaszewski 90% vs Gluszek 60%
Lukaszewski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukaszewski +5 · Gluszek -2
Lukaszewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lukaszewski) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gluszek form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukaszewski 1.85 / Gluszek 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lukaszewski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13114784
Lukaszewski1.85
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Gluszek1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukaszewski5wins
AwayGluszek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukaszewski83.3%5 of 6
AwayGluszek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukaszewski6Gluszek4n = 10Lukaszewski took 6 of 10
S2Lukaszewski3Gluszek7n = 10Gluszek took 7 of 10
S3Lukaszewski4Gluszek6n = 10Gluszek took 6 of 10
S4Lukaszewski5Gluszek3n = 8Lukaszewski took 5 of 8
S5Lukaszewski3Gluszek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukaszewskiGluszekL − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.740.0+1.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukaszewskiGluszekBasisWin rate · lifetime921 / 2008 vs 852 / 178945.9%47.6%921 / 2008 vs 852 / 1789Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukaszewskiLukaszewski 1.85/Gluszek 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lukaszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 17:20M. Lukaszewski4211911113W. Gluszek30611491
LAug 26 · 24:35M. Lukaszewski2711970W. Gluszek351311113
LAug 14 · 21:05M. Lukaszewski228590W. Gluszek331111113
WAug 14 · 15:00M. Lukaszewski46111149113W. Gluszek4578111182
WAug 12 · 24:10M. Lukaszewski43111011113W. Gluszek32612591
LAug 5 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski4359111172W. Gluszek48111169113
LJul 21 · 23:20M. Lukaszewski4591161182W. Gluszek45114118113
WJul 21 · 21:00M. Lukaszewski531111713113W. Gluszek4294111532
LJul 13 · 23:20M. Lukaszewski46115101192W. Gluszek48811126113
WJul 13 · 21:00M. Lukaszewski501112115113W. Gluszek4261461152
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 12 · 24:10K. Marchlewski2.0594100M. Lukaszewski1.681111123LSep 11 · 23:45M. Lukaszewski1.90111191092D. Poloszczanski1.80461112113WSep 11 · 21:05M. Lukaszewski2.151111113K. Sulkowski1.617880WSep 11 · 20:05D. Szlubowski1.607121491M. Lukaszewski2.20111016113WSep 11 · 19:20K. Marchlewski2.007119111M. Lukaszewski1.7011711133WSep 11 · 17:20W. Gluszek1.75611491M. Lukaszewski1.9511911113WSep 11 · 16:35P. Strus1.84119101192M. Lukaszewski1.79911129113LSep 11 · 15:00K. Sulkowski1.6511126113M. Lukaszewski2.108101171WSep 10 · 23:20J. Rolak1.80711991M. Lukaszewski1.8511511113WSep 10 · 22:35M. Trela1.757970M. Lukaszewski1.951111113
W. Gluszek10
LSep 12 · 23:20A. Wos1.211113113W. Gluszek3.6061170LSep 12 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski1.80101411113W. Gluszek1.851212991LSep 12 · 22:15W. Gluszek2.50411561R. Stapor1.4211911113WSep 12 · 21:05D. Kotwica1.76771291W. Gluszek1.90111110113LSep 12 · 20:05R. Stapor1.558111112113W. Gluszek2.2511971482LSep 12 · 19:20A. Wos1.2191111113W. Gluszek3.60117681LSep 12 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.801111113W. Gluszek1.908870LSep 12 · 16:35G. Kesik1.411111810113W. Gluszek2.6059111262LSep 12 · 15:00K. Marchlewski2.2511111013113W. Gluszek1.5775121582LSep 11 · 17:20W. Gluszek1.75611491M. Lukaszewski1.9511911113
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