TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114778
Played Sep 11Finished
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141169111012911
Dawid Poloszczanski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:13 and never touched — 67.4% is still 67.4%
Graded at full timeMikolaj Lukaszewski to win
67.4%
67.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1141169111012911
H2H Mikolaj Lukaszewski 10–6 Dawid Poloszczanski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:13What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Poloszczanski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Lukaszewski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukaszewski 1369 vs Poloszczanski 1234
Lukaszewski
Wrong
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukaszewski 100% vs Poloszczanski 20%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukaszewski 90% vs Poloszczanski 20%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukaszewski +5 · Poloszczanski +1
Lukaszewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lukaszewski) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukaszewski 1.90 / Poloszczanski 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lukaszewski)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114778
Lukaszewski1.90
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 282 of 678
Down 0–1, comes back15% 55 of 375
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 199
Poloszczanski1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite57% won 54 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it81% 39 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukaszewski8wins
AwayPoloszczanski2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLukaszewski leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukaszewski85.7%6 of 7
AwayPoloszczanski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukaszewski7Poloszczanski3n = 10Lukaszewski took 7 of 10
S2Lukaszewski6Poloszczanski4n = 10Lukaszewski took 6 of 10
S3Lukaszewski7Poloszczanski3n = 10Lukaszewski took 7 of 10
S4Lukaszewski5Poloszczanski2n = 7Lukaszewski took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukaszewskiPoloszczanskiL − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.834.8+4.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukaszewskiPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime922 / 2009 vs 324 / 82845.9%39.1%922 / 2009 vs 324 / 828Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukaszewskiLukaszewski 1.90/Poloszczanski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lukaszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Poloszczanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 04:10M. Lukaszewski—118471D. Poloszczanski—81111113
WJun 3 · 02:00M. Lukaszewski—1411113D. Poloszczanski—12690
WJun 2 · 23:30M. Lukaszewski—11711113D. Poloszczanski—811661
WJun 2 · 21:35M. Lukaszewski—12116113D. Poloszczanski—1071191
WJun 2 · 24:20M. Lukaszewski—1111113D. Poloszczanski—8670
WJun 1 · 21:55M. Lukaszewski—118811113D. Poloszczanski—71111862
WJun 1 · 18:40M. Lukaszewski—81213153D. Poloszczanski—111011131
WMay 3 · 06:55M. Lukaszewski—91211113D. Poloszczanski—1110981
LMay 2 · 12:15M. Lukaszewski—591291D. Poloszczanski—111110113
WApr 5 · 10:35M. Lukaszewski—1112113D. Poloszczanski—71050
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 12 · 24:10K. Marchlewski2.0594100M. Lukaszewski1.681111123WSep 11 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski1.8511814113W. Gluszek1.856111271WSep 11 · 21:05M. Lukaszewski2.151111113K. Sulkowski1.617880WSep 11 · 20:05D. Szlubowski1.607121491M. Lukaszewski2.20111016113WSep 11 · 19:20K. Marchlewski2.007119111M. Lukaszewski1.7011711133WSep 11 · 17:20W. Gluszek1.75611491M. Lukaszewski1.9511911113WSep 11 · 16:35P. Strus1.84119101192M. Lukaszewski1.79911129113LSep 11 · 15:00K. Sulkowski1.6511126113M. Lukaszewski2.108101171WSep 10 · 23:20J. Rolak1.80711991M. Lukaszewski1.8511511113WSep 10 · 22:35M. Trela1.757970M. Lukaszewski1.951111113
D. Poloszczanski10
WSep 12 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski1.951112109113W. Gluszek1.75710121162WSep 11 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski1.85511611113K. Sulkowski1.8011311752LSep 11 · 21:55K. Marchlewski1.9511711113D. Poloszczanski1.75711791LSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113LSep 5 · 23:45K. Kufel1.601111113D. Poloszczanski2.103260LSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133LSep 5 · 21:55A. Lilien1.221112113D. Poloszczanski3.7041030WSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:30D. Poloszczanski2.47911110J. Michalczyk1.461113133LSep 5 · 17:20D. Poloszczanski—111251192K. Kufel—1310118113
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