TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119367
Played Sep 12Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
1.76
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7117111210911––
Wojciech Gluszek
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:14 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
7117111210911––
H2H Dawid Kotwica 43–24 Wojciech Gluszek Wojciech Gluszek has won 24 of their 67 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kotwica beat Gluszek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:14What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Kotwica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-24 in 67
Kotwica
Wrong
gap of 19 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1268 vs Gluszek 1204
Kotwica
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 20% vs Gluszek 0%
Kotwica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 30% vs Gluszek 10%
Kotwica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica -2 · Gluszek -5
Gluszek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotwica) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gluszek form (0%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 1.76 / Gluszek 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotwica)+2.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13119367
Kotwica1.76
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 70 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it76% 51 of 67
Gluszek1.90
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 118 of 329
Down 0–1, comes back19% 35 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotwica9wins
AwayGluszek1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKotwica leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica100%6 of 6
AwayGluszek25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica6Gluszek4n = 10Kotwica took 6 of 10
S2Kotwica7Gluszek3n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S3Kotwica8Gluszek2n = 10Kotwica took 8 of 10
S4Kotwica3Gluszek4n = 7Gluszek took 4 of 7
S5Kotwica4Gluszek0n = 4Kotwica took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotwicaGluszekK − GBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.135.4+6.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaGluszekBasisWin rate · lifetime634 / 1542 vs 848 / 178641.1%47.5%634 / 1542 vs 848 / 1786Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotwicaKotwica 1.76/Gluszek 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kotwica · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gluszek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 17:20D. Kotwica331111113W. Gluszek238870
WAug 4 · 22:55D. Kotwica4815148113W. Gluszek4213121161
WAug 4 · 20:05D. Kotwica44111111113W. Gluszek28132761
WJul 5 · 19:40D. Kotwica49117119113W. Gluszek4491161172
WJul 4 · 19:20D. Kotwica331111113W. Gluszek157620
LJun 10 · 18:10D. Kotwica35811791W. Gluszek4011711113
WMay 14 · 18:30D. Kotwica341111123W. Gluszek2798100
WMay 13 · 15:25D. Kotwica50791211113W. Gluszek49111110892
WMay 5 · 15:50D. Kotwica48613117113W. Gluszek43111131172
WMay 3 · 14:00D. Kotwica47115119113W. Gluszek4341191182
D. Kotwica10
LSep 12 · 19:40D. Kotwica2.5586100G. Kesik1.411111123LSep 12 · 18:30D. Kotwica2.15571131R. Stapor1.6211119113WSep 12 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.801111113W. Gluszek1.908870LSep 12 · 16:15K. Marchlewski2.35681111113D. Kotwica1.4811119772LSep 12 · 15:25D. Kotwica3.50613951A. Wos1.25111111113WSep 4 · 23:20K. Golaszewski2.15711781D. Kotwica1.6011811113LSep 4 · 22:35K. Sulkowski1.85811611133D. Kotwica1.85113119112WSep 4 · 22:15D. Kotwica1.5711118113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191LSep 4 · 21:05S. Wnek2.1511711113D. Kotwica1.62511731LSep 4 · 20:30D. Kotwica1.904880K. Golaszewski1.801111113
W. Gluszek10
LSep 12 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski1.80101411113W. Gluszek1.851212991LSep 12 · 22:15W. Gluszek2.50411561R. Stapor1.4211911113LSep 12 · 20:05R. Stapor1.558111112113W. Gluszek2.2511971482LSep 12 · 19:20A. Wos1.2191111113W. Gluszek3.60117681LSep 12 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.801111113W. Gluszek1.908870LSep 12 · 16:35G. Kesik1.411111810113W. Gluszek2.6059111262LSep 12 · 15:00K. Marchlewski2.2511111013113W. Gluszek1.5775121582LSep 12 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski1.951112109113W. Gluszek1.75710121162LSep 11 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski1.8511814113W. Gluszek1.856111271LSep 11 · 22:15K. Sulkowski1.851111123W. Gluszek1.8567100
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