TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119983
Played Sep 12Finished
Wojciech Gluszek
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411119511611––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.42
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
411119511611––
H2H Wojciech Gluszek 6–13 Rafal Stapor Wojciech Gluszek has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Stapor beat Gluszek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (64%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-13 in 19
Stapor
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gluszek 1219 vs Stapor 1424
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 205 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gluszek 20% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gluszek 10% vs Stapor 50%
Stapor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gluszek +1 · Stapor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (60%) is below what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGluszek 2.50 / Stapor 1.42
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Stapor)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13119983
Gluszek2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 118 of 329
Down 0–1, comes back19% 35 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 115
Stapor1.42
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 410 of 645
Up 2–0, closes it96% 204 of 213
Up 1–0, closes it82% 315 of 385
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGluszek1wins
AwayStapor9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGluszek33.3%1 of 3
AwayStapor100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gluszek3Stapor7n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S2Gluszek2Stapor8n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S3Gluszek1Stapor9n = 10Stapor took 9 of 10
S4Gluszek2Stapor3n = 5Stapor took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricGluszekStaporG − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.738.5−11.8per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGluszekStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime849 / 1787 vs 650 / 115147.5%56.5%849 / 1787 vs 650 / 1151Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporGluszek 2.50/Stapor 1.42
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.8%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 13 · 17:45W. Gluszek196670R. Stapor331111113
LJun 30 · 06:05W. Gluszek2081020R. Stapor341112113
LJun 30 · 03:50W. Gluszek3311451122R. Stapor48911116113
LJun 16 · 18:55W. Gluszek2410590R. Stapor341211113
LJun 16 · 13:05W. Gluszek157620R. Stapor331111113
WJun 7 · 19:45W. Gluszek4115114113R. Stapor331351141
LJun 3 · 11:45W. Gluszek28134651R. Stapor44111111113
LMay 26 · 09:00W. Gluszek331012651R. Stapor44121011113
LApr 22 · 09:20W. Gluszek33581731R. Stapor48111115113
LApr 3 · 19:30W. Gluszek2110830R. Stapor341211113
W. Gluszek10
LSep 12 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski1.80101411113W. Gluszek1.851212991WSep 12 · 21:05D. Kotwica1.76771291W. Gluszek1.90111110113LSep 12 · 20:05R. Stapor1.558111112113W. Gluszek2.2511971482LSep 12 · 19:20A. Wos1.2191111113W. Gluszek3.60117681LSep 12 · 17:20D. Kotwica1.801111113W. Gluszek1.908870LSep 12 · 16:35G. Kesik1.411111810113W. Gluszek2.6059111262LSep 12 · 15:00K. Marchlewski2.2511111013113W. Gluszek1.5775121582LSep 12 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski1.951112109113W. Gluszek1.75710121162LSep 11 · 22:55M. Lukaszewski1.8511814113W. Gluszek1.856111271LSep 11 · 22:15K. Sulkowski1.851111123W. Gluszek1.8567100
R. Stapor10
LSep 12 · 21:30A. Wos1.501111106113R. Stapor2.5066121152WSep 12 · 20:05R. Stapor1.558111112113W. Gluszek2.2511971482WSep 12 · 18:30D. Kotwica2.15571131R. Stapor1.6211119113LSep 12 · 17:45K. Marchlewski2.85111124113R. Stapor1.3535111132WSep 12 · 16:55R. Stapor2.60711611113A. Wos1.4111511682WSep 12 · 15:50R. Stapor1.9613115113G. Kesik1.701161191LSep 11 · 13:55R. Stapor1.878860B. Mleczko1.831111113WSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150LSep 11 · 11:25R. Stapor1.858970B. Czerwinski1.801111113LSep 11 · 10:10B. Sulkowski1.751111113R. Stapor1.959880
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