TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119111
Played Sep 12Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
2.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113115211411113
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.35
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeKacper Marchlewski to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
113115211411113
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 0–2 Rafal Stapor Kacper Marchlewski has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:18What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (68%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1208 vs Stapor 1437
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 229 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 40% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Stapor 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +2 · Stapor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (60%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.85 / Stapor 1.35
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Stapor)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13119111
Marchlewski2.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Stapor1.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 410 of 645
Up 2–0, closes it96% 204 of 213
Up 1–0, closes it82% 315 of 385
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMarchlewski0wins
AwayStapor2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderStapor leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiStaporM − SBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match36.044.5−8.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 343 vs 648 / 114743.7%56.5%150 / 343 vs 648 / 1147Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporMarchlewski 2.85/Stapor 1.35
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LMay 2 · 02:20K. Marchlewski228680R. Stapor331111113
LMay 1 · 23:55K. Marchlewski50111176152R. Stapor56981111173
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 12 · 16:15K. Marchlewski2.35681111113D. Kotwica1.4811119772WSep 12 · 15:00K. Marchlewski2.2511111013113W. Gluszek1.5775121582LSep 12 · 13:55J. Rolak1.741111123K. Marchlewski1.9594100LSep 12 · 13:05I. Dabrowski1.30461111113K. Marchlewski3.0011118162LSep 12 · 12:15K. Marchlewski3.506111141J. Glanowski1.2511134113LSep 12 · 10:35K. Marchlewski3.257712101P. Maruszak1.26111110123LSep 12 · 09:50J. Przewlocki1.6211111511113K. Marchlewski2.1561317452LSep 12 · 24:10K. Marchlewski2.0594100M. Lukaszewski1.681111123WSep 11 · 23:20K. Marchlewski2.3011611113K. Sulkowski1.55711271WSep 11 · 21:55K. Marchlewski1.9511711113D. Poloszczanski1.75711791
R. Stapor10
WSep 12 · 16:55R. Stapor2.60711611113A. Wos1.4111511682WSep 12 · 15:50R. Stapor1.9613115113G. Kesik1.701161191LSep 11 · 13:55R. Stapor1.878860B. Mleczko1.831111113WSep 11 · 12:40R. Stapor1.831111173M. Misiak1.8396150LSep 11 · 11:25R. Stapor1.858970B. Czerwinski1.801111113LSep 11 · 10:10B. Sulkowski1.751111113R. Stapor1.959880LSep 11 · 09:25R. Stapor1.7613129892M. Zagajewski1.9011101111113WSep 11 · 08:35M. Misiak1.90871161R. Stapor1.8011119113LSep 11 · 07:20R. Stapor1.358911111B. Wisniewski2.8011113133WSep 11 · 06:05J. Glanowski1.721181081R. Stapor1.9261112113
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