TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119139
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslaw Rolak
Home
1.74
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191141210––––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Marchlewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
1191141210––––
H2H Jaroslaw Rolak 19–14 Kacper Marchlewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:22What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Rolak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Rolak
Correct
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolak 1246 vs Marchlewski 1194
Rolak
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolak 40% vs Marchlewski 0%
Rolak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolak 40% vs Marchlewski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolak -1 · Marchlewski -5
Marchlewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rolak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (0%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolak 1.74 / Marchlewski 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rolak)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119139
Rolak1.74
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 148 of 310
Up 2–0, closes it87% 73 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it68% 120 of 176
Marchlewski1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolak7wins
AwayMarchlewski3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRolak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolak100%6 of 6
AwayMarchlewski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolak6Marchlewski4n = 10Rolak took 6 of 10
S2Rolak7Marchlewski3n = 10Rolak took 7 of 10
S3Rolak6Marchlewski4n = 10Rolak took 6 of 10
S4Rolak4Marchlewski3n = 7Rolak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolakMarchlewskiR − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.733.3+6.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolakMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime657 / 1442 vs 148 / 34045.6%43.5%657 / 1442 vs 148 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolakRolak 1.74/Marchlewski 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rolak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rolak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 21:05J. Rolak481011116102K. Marchlewski42124311123
WSep 1 · 19:20J. Rolak391711113K. Marchlewski2715660
WAug 29 · 09:25J. Rolak3811115113K. Marchlewski26531171
WAug 29 · 06:05J. Rolak4211911113K. Marchlewski26511911
WAug 6 · 23:20J. Rolak46141011113K. Marchlewski401212791
LAug 6 · 20:30J. Rolak2236130K. Marchlewski371111153
WJul 28 · 21:05J. Rolak43101111113K. Marchlewski29125481
WJul 28 · 19:20J. Rolak49111188113K. Marchlewski3737111152
LMar 22 · 02:00J. Rolak346111071K. Marchlewski4211812113
WMar 21 · 23:35J. Rolak361311123K. Marchlewski27116100
J. Rolak10
LSep 12 · 12:40J. Rolak2.05711115102J. Przewlocki1.68118911123WSep 12 · 11:25J. Rolak2.7511811163P. Maruszak1.404117141LSep 12 · 10:10I. Dabrowski1.50101111153J. Rolak2.401288131LSep 12 · 09:25J. Rolak3.15913151J. Glanowski1.28111111113WSep 12 · 08:35J. Przewlocki1.7212129482J. Rolak2.0010101111113LSep 12 · 07:20J. Rolak1.9112811111B. Wisniewski1.7314115133LSep 12 · 06:05J. Glanowski1.301111113J. Rolak3.005690WSep 12 · 04:55I. Dabrowski1.3791011121J. Rolak2.7011127143LSep 12 · 03:25D. Poloszczanski1.86581111123J. Rolak1.83111178102WSep 11 · 24:10J. Rolak2.35411911113K. Klocek1.5311211362
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 12 · 15:00K. Marchlewski2.2511111013113W. Gluszek1.5775121582LSep 12 · 13:05I. Dabrowski1.30461111113K. Marchlewski3.0011118162LSep 12 · 12:15K. Marchlewski3.506111141J. Glanowski1.2511134113LSep 12 · 10:35K. Marchlewski3.257712101P. Maruszak1.26111110123LSep 12 · 09:50J. Przewlocki1.6211111511113K. Marchlewski2.1561317452LSep 12 · 24:10K. Marchlewski2.0594100M. Lukaszewski1.681111123WSep 11 · 23:20K. Marchlewski2.3011611113K. Sulkowski1.55711271WSep 11 · 21:55K. Marchlewski1.9511711113D. Poloszczanski1.75711791WSep 11 · 21:30K. Marchlewski2.20915118143W. Gluszek1.571113311122LSep 11 · 20:30K. Sulkowski1.52101112163K. Marchlewski2.3012810141
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