TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114871
Played Sep 12Finished
Dawid Poloszczanski
Home
1.86
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5118111171181210
Jaroslaw Rolak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeDawid Poloszczanski to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
5118111171181210
H2H Dawid Poloszczanski 4–1 Jaroslaw Rolak Jaroslaw Rolak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Rolak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Poloszczanski
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poloszczanski 1261 vs Rolak 1259
Poloszczanski
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poloszczanski 60% vs Rolak 40%
Poloszczanski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poloszczanski 40% vs Rolak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Poloszczanski +3 · Rolak +1
Poloszczanski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Poloszczanski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoloszczanski 1.86 / Rolak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Poloszczanski)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114871
Poloszczanski1.86
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 129 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back22% 43 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 111
Rolak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 148 of 309
Up 2–0, closes it88% 73 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it69% 120 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePoloszczanski4wins
AwayRolak1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderPoloszczanski leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePoloszczanski100%3 of 3
AwayRolakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poloszczanski3Rolak2n = 5Poloszczanski took 3 of 5
S2Poloszczanski3Rolak2n = 5Poloszczanski took 3 of 5
S3Poloszczanski3Rolak2n = 5Poloszczanski took 3 of 5
S4Poloszczanski0Rolak3n = 3Rolak took 3 of 3
S5Poloszczanski3Rolak0n = 3Poloszczanski took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricPoloszczanskiRolakP − RBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.441.0−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoloszczanskiRolakBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 830 vs 659 / 144439.3%45.6%326 / 830 vs 659 / 1444Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoloszczanskiPoloszczanski 1.86/Rolak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Poloszczanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Poloszczanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 1 · 04:55D. Poloszczanski—111189123J. Rolak—781111102
LJul 11 · 11:25D. Poloszczanski—6950J. Rolak—1111113
WJun 20 · 04:10D. Poloszczanski—1111113J. Rolak—9980
WJun 2 · 16:25D. Poloszczanski—115119113J. Rolak—91181162
WJan 4 · 11:35D. Poloszczanski—1112124123J. Rolak—13101011102
D. Poloszczanski10
WSep 12 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski1.951112109113W. Gluszek1.75710121162WSep 11 · 23:45M. Lukaszewski1.90111191092D. Poloszczanski1.80461112113WSep 11 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski1.85511611113K. Sulkowski1.8011311752LSep 11 · 21:55K. Marchlewski1.9511711113D. Poloszczanski1.75711791LSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113LSep 5 · 23:45K. Kufel1.601111113D. Poloszczanski2.103260LSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133LSep 5 · 21:55A. Lilien1.221112113D. Poloszczanski3.7041030WSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:30D. Poloszczanski2.47911110J. Michalczyk1.461113133
J. Rolak10
WSep 11 · 24:10J. Rolak2.35411911113K. Klocek1.5311211362LSep 10 · 23:20J. Rolak1.80711991M. Lukaszewski1.8511511113LSep 10 · 21:55J. Rolak1.70910111182M. Trela2.00111267113LSep 10 · 21:30J. Rolak1.751011111062K. Golaszewski1.89128512113WSep 10 · 20:30M. Lukaszewski1.91671171J. Rolak1.7311115113LSep 10 · 19:20J. Rolak2.5011813982K. Klocek1.433111111113WSep 10 · 18:10B. Wisniewski1.86811951J. Rolak1.8011611113LSep 10 · 16:55K. Golaszewski1.9512911113J. Rolak1.701011961WSep 10 · 15:25A. Eliasz1.86513111082J. Rolak1.831111912113LSep 9 · 24:10J. Rolak2.467570K. Klocek1.441111113
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