TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119101
Played Sep 12Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
2.70
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119311611611––
Gracjan Kesik
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGracjan Kesik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
119311611611––
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 2–3 Gracjan Kesik Kacper Marchlewski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:16What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kesik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1226 vs Kesik 1487
Kesik
Correct
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Kesik 40%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Kesik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +3 · Kesik -1
Marchlewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kesik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kesik form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.70 / Kesik 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kesik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13119101
Marchlewski2.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Kesik1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 79 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMarchlewski2wins
AwayKesik3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKesik leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski50%2 of 4
AwayKesikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski4Kesik1n = 5Marchlewski took 4 of 5
S2Marchlewski2Kesik3n = 5Kesik took 3 of 5
S3Marchlewski1Kesik4n = 5Kesik took 4 of 5
S4Marchlewski2Kesik1n = 3Marchlewski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiKesikM − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match35.637.6−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 344 vs 317 / 58843.9%53.9%151 / 344 vs 317 / 588Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KesikMarchlewski 2.70/Kesik 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Kesik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kesik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 18 · 23:20K. Marchlewski2771190G. Kesik351113113
LJul 18 · 21:00K. Marchlewski43118311102G. Kesik49911116123
LJul 18 · 16:15K. Marchlewski30115771G. Kesik3961111113
WAug 31 · 12:35K. Marchlewski381114133G. Kesik30712110
WJun 14 · 17:50K. Marchlewski4011117113G. Kesik35881181
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 12 · 17:45K. Marchlewski2.85111124113R. Stapor1.3535111132WSep 12 · 16:15K. Marchlewski2.35681111113D. Kotwica1.4811119772WSep 12 · 15:00K. Marchlewski2.2511111013113W. Gluszek1.5775121582LSep 12 · 13:55J. Rolak1.741111123K. Marchlewski1.9594100LSep 12 · 13:05I. Dabrowski1.30461111113K. Marchlewski3.0011118162LSep 12 · 12:15K. Marchlewski3.506111141J. Glanowski1.2511134113LSep 12 · 10:35K. Marchlewski3.257712101P. Maruszak1.26111110123LSep 12 · 09:50J. Przewlocki1.6211111511113K. Marchlewski2.1561317452LSep 12 · 24:10K. Marchlewski2.0594100M. Lukaszewski1.681111123WSep 11 · 23:20K. Marchlewski2.3011611113K. Sulkowski1.55711271
G. Kesik10
WSep 12 · 19:40D. Kotwica2.5586100G. Kesik1.411111123LSep 12 · 18:10G. Kesik2.4110810A. Wos1.461211113WSep 12 · 16:35G. Kesik1.411111810113W. Gluszek2.6059111262LSep 12 · 15:50R. Stapor1.9613115113G. Kesik1.701161191LSep 12 · 14:15G. Kesik2.5513580M. Kolek1.451511113WSep 12 · 12:35K. Rudomina1.851011961G. Kesik1.8512911113WSep 12 · 11:45D. Solilo1.589101471G. Kesik2.13111212113LSep 12 · 10:55G. Kesik1.7511116262G. Poliniewicz1.90641111113WSep 12 · 09:45G. Kesik1.90111011113R. Malinowski1.80612761LSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113
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