Patryk Jendrzejewski vs Filip Mlynarski 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115865

Played Sep 12Finished

Patryk Jendrzejewski

Home

1.91

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1210611113119––

Filip Mlynarski

Away

1.80

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:14 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%

Graded at full time

Patryk Jendrzejewski to win

60.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingPatryk Jendrzejewski above · Filip Mlynarski below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 11-3

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Patryk Jendrzejewski at 60.5%

73 points played in total.

H2H Patryk Jendrzejewski 5–6 Filip Mlynarski Patryk Jendrzejewski has won 5 of their 11 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Same-day rematch · 7h before this match

Mlynarski beat Jendrzejewski 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 16:14

What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Mlynarski

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

5-6 in 11

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Jendrzejewski 1637 vs Mlynarski 1717

Mlynarski

Wrong

both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Jendrzejewski 60% vs Mlynarski 80%

Mlynarski

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Jendrzejewski 50% vs Mlynarski 70%

Mlynarski

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Jendrzejewski -1 · Mlynarski +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Mlynarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsJendrzejewski 1.91 / Mlynarski 1.80

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Mlynarski)+2.5pp

TT Elite Series · #13115865

Jendrzejewski1.91

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog43% won 86 of 199

Down 0–1, comes back22% 21 of 97

Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 59

Mlynarski1.80

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite64% won 141 of 221

Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76

Up 1–0, closes it80% 102 of 128

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeJendrzejewski5wins

AwayMlynarski5wins

2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeJendrzejewski66.7%4 of 6

AwayMlynarski75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Jendrzejewski6Mlynarski4n = 10Jendrzejewski took 6 of 10

S2Jendrzejewski5Mlynarski5n = 10split evenly

S3Jendrzejewski5Mlynarski5n = 10split evenly

S4Jendrzejewski3Mlynarski4n = 7Mlynarski took 4 of 7

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricJendrzejewskiMlynarskiJ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.236.9−0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricJendrzejewskiMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 727 vs 170 / 30149%56.5%356 / 727 vs 170 / 301Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Mlynarski

Jendrzejewski 1.91/Mlynarski 1.80

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Mlynarski · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Jendrzejewski won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 12 · 15:45P. Jendrzejewski376119111F. Mlynarski4211711133

WSep 6 · 24:35P. Jendrzejewski341111123F. Mlynarski2596100

WSep 5 · 15:45P. Jendrzejewski341112113F. Mlynarski2591060

WAug 30 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski3612211113F. Mlynarski331011391

LAug 30 · 17:40P. Jendrzejewski4091011101F. Mlynarski4311128123

LAug 29 · 22:55P. Jendrzejewski4411715562F. Mlynarski537111311113

LAug 29 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski351195101F. Mlynarski4061111123

WAug 16 · 22:10P. Jendrzejewski4011117113F. Mlynarski29571161

LAug 16 · 17:40P. Jendrzejewski197840F. Mlynarski331111113

WAug 16 · 24:35P. Jendrzejewski43211711123F. Mlynarski46117117102

P. Jendrzejewski10

LSep 12 · 21:00P. Jendrzejewski1.53811971M. Marchlewski2.3811311113 WSep 12 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.61811581P. Jendrzejewski2.2011911113 LSep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.381111510123P. Jendrzejewski1.53971112102 WSep 12 · 18:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8311211113T. Filbrandt1.83611891 WSep 12 · 16:30P. Jendrzejewski1.61111282113M. Kolek2.20610111152 LSep 12 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.6711711133P. Jendrzejewski2.106119111 WSep 12 · 01:10P. Jendrzejewski1.5011116113J. Mitas2.50771151 WSep 12 · 24:20P. Jendrzejewski1.831111113T. Filbrandt1.839980 LSep 11 · 22:50P. Jendrzejewski1.838950K. Staszczyk1.831111113 LSep 11 · 22:30P. Jendrzejewski1.531191111102M. Marchlewski2.38131159123

F. Mlynarski10

WSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski2.633640F. Mlynarski1.441111113 WSep 12 · 21:25T. Filbrandt1.9111761172F. Mlynarski1.80511118113 LSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143 WSep 12 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.6131111592F. Mlynarski2.20113711113 WSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113 WSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192 WSep 12 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.6711711133P. Jendrzejewski2.106119111 WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113 LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162 LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123

Upcoming Matches

P. Jendrzejewski

Sep 13 · 24:10P. Jendrzejewski1.83T. Filbrandt1.83—

F. Mlynarski3 of 10 neutral

Sep 13 · 24:35F. Mlynarski1.83D. Jadam1.83—Sep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski—G. Kesik——Sep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski—M. Kolek——Sep 13 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 13 · 20:30F. Mlynarski—D. Jadam——Sep 13 · 21:00F. Mlynarski—M. Rutkowski——Sep 13 · 22:10F. Mlynarski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 13 · 22:35F. Mlynarski—A. Wos——Sep 13 · 23:20F. Mlynarski—D. Jadam——

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