TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120747
Played Sep 13Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111156111141012
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 87 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 3–2 Konrad Staszczyk Konrad Staszczyk has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:09What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1682 vs Staszczyk 1676
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 80% vs Staszczyk 60%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 70% vs Staszczyk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +2 · Staszczyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.20 / Staszczyk 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Staszczyk)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13120747
Kolek2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 174 of 448
Down 0–1, comes back21% 56 of 267
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 123
Staszczyk1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 151 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it88% 60 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it84% 108 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKolek3wins
AwayStaszczyk2wins
4 of 5 to a deciderKolek leads 3–2, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek100%3 of 3
AwayStaszczykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek3Staszczyk2n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
S2Kolek1Staszczyk4n = 5Staszczyk took 4 of 5
S3Kolek3Staszczyk2n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
S4Kolek2Staszczyk3n = 5Staszczyk took 3 of 5
S5Kolek3Staszczyk1n = 4Kolek took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKolekStaszczykK − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match45.042.4+2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime696 / 1399 vs 192 / 33949.8%56.6%696 / 1399 vs 192 / 339Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykKolek 2.20/Staszczyk 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 11 · 13:50M. Kolek46116711113K. Staszczyk3441111442
WJun 28 · 18:30M. Kolek52119911123K. Staszczyk46711117102
LMay 31 · 13:00M. Kolek4871112992K. Staszczyk521191011113
WMay 31 · 04:10M. Kolek46114119113K. Staszczyk3871151142
LMay 21 · 16:55M. Kolek33691171K. Staszczyk4211119113
M. Kolek10
WSep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.911111113L. Pietraszko1.809280WSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132LSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291WSep 13 · 14:35T. Piotrowski3.055580M. Kolek1.291111113WSep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek1.241191313133M. Piecowski3.404111115112LSep 13 · 12:10D. Solilo1.8511118113M. Kolek1.85371181WSep 13 · 10:55G. Kesik2.65631121M. Kolek1.4011118113LSep 13 · 09:20P. Maruszak2.80119511113M. Kolek1.3481111982WSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.5091070K. Staszczyk2.501112113LSep 13 · 18:05K. Staszczyk1.837380D. Jadam1.831111113LSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.53119113122G. Kesik2.38711411143WSep 13 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.38119971K. Staszczyk1.5381111113WSep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk1.73119119123M. Marchlewski2.00911511102WSep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas2.00116661K. Staszczyk1.7331111113WSep 11 · 23:35K. Staszczyk2.1011111113T. Filbrandt1.67881181WSep 11 · 22:50P. Jendrzejewski1.838950K. Staszczyk1.831111113LSep 11 · 13:50K. Staszczyk1.8041111442M. Kolek1.90116711113LSep 11 · 12:35K. Staszczyk2.905890M. Miastowski1.321111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek2 of 5 neutral
K. Staszczyk2 of 9 neutral
Sep 14 · 15:25K. Staszczyk—M. Kolek——Sep 14 · 16:55K. Staszczyk—A. Linek——Sep 14 · 18:05K. Staszczyk—K. Rudomina——Sep 14 · 19:15K. Staszczyk—K. Kostyk——Sep 14 · 20:30K. Staszczyk—J. Witkowski——Sep 14 · 21:25K. Staszczyk—J. Lamperski——Sep 14 · 21:50K. Staszczyk—D. Solilo——Sep 14 · 23:20K. Staszczyk—A. Linek——Sep 15 · 24:10K. Staszczyk—K. Kostyk——
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