TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120749
Played Sep 13Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121141128111513
Gracjan Kesik
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Gracjan Kesik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 97 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 9–4 Gracjan Kesik Gracjan Kesik has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kolek beat Kesik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Kolek
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1658 vs Kesik 1553
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Kesik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Kesik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -1 · Kesik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kesik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.50 / Kesik 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Kolek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13120749
Kolek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 255 of 424
Up 2–0, closes it94% 92 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it81% 192 of 238
Kesik2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 54 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back34% 21 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek7wins
AwayKesik3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek100%6 of 6
AwayKesik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek6Kesik4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Kolek8Kesik2n = 10Kolek took 8 of 10
S3Kolek5Kesik5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolek4Kesik3n = 7Kolek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekKesikKolek − KesikBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.335.2+4.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime694 / 1397 vs 323 / 59749.7%54.1%694 / 1397 vs 323 / 597Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.50/Kesik 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 10:55M. Kolek4111118113G. Kesik22631121
WSep 12 · 14:15M. Kolek371511113G. Kesik2613580
LAug 31 · 04:25M. Kolek4381111762G. Kesik46114911113
WJun 7 · 06:35M. Kolek541114126113G. Kesik531312101172
WMay 31 · 10:05M. Kolek371111153G. Kesik2355130
WMay 31 · 03:20M. Kolek4311118133G. Kesik399811111
LApr 12 · 11:30M. Kolek259790G. Kesik331111113
WMar 8 · 12:05M. Kolek4411811143G. Kesik378116121
LMar 4 · 16:25M. Kolek31711941G. Kesik4111811113
WMar 4 · 12:50M. Kolek3811115113G. Kesik32841191
M. Kolek10
LSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291WSep 13 · 14:35T. Piotrowski3.055580M. Kolek1.291111113WSep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek1.241191313133M. Piecowski3.404111115112LSep 13 · 12:10D. Solilo1.8511118113M. Kolek1.85371181WSep 13 · 10:55G. Kesik2.65631121M. Kolek1.4011118113LSep 13 · 09:20P. Maruszak2.80119511113M. Kolek1.3481111982WSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143WSep 12 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.53411111172M. Kolek2.38118913113LSep 12 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.36111188113M. Kolek3.0068111192
G. Kesik10
WSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.53119113122G. Kesik2.38711411143LSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252LSep 13 · 14:15G. Kesik1.517101161M. Piecowski2.2911127113WSep 13 · 12:35P. Maruszak1.9591170G. Kesik1.741113113WSep 13 · 11:45T. Piotrowski2.1010260G. Kesik1.651211113LSep 13 · 10:55G. Kesik2.65631121M. Kolek1.4011118113WSep 13 · 09:45G. Kesik2.255171211133D. Solilo1.541115144112WSep 12 · 19:40D. Kotwica2.5586100G. Kesik1.411111123WSep 12 · 18:55K. Marchlewski2.70113661G. Kesik1.4091111113LSep 12 · 18:10G. Kesik2.4110810A. Wos1.461211113
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