Filip Mlynarski vs Maciej Kolek 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120750

Played Sep 13Finished

Filip Mlynarski

Home

1.44

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

511118114111––

Maciej Kolek

Away

2.63

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%

Graded at full time

Filip Mlynarski to win

59.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Maciej Kolek below

Set 1 · 5-11

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 11-1

Point 62 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Filip Mlynarski at 59.1%

62 points played in total.

H2H Filip Mlynarski 11–3 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 3 of their 14 meetings.

Last 10 · 8–2Same sideHead to head

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:10

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Mlynarski

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

11-3 in 14

Mlynarski

Correct

gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Mlynarski 1705 vs Kolek 1675

Mlynarski

Correct

both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mlynarski 80% vs Kolek 60%

Mlynarski

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mlynarski 80% vs Kolek 50%

Mlynarski

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Mlynarski +2 · Kolek +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMlynarski 1.44 / Kolek 2.63

Signal prob.67% / 33%

Edge (Mlynarski)+2.4pp

TT Elite Series · #13120750

Mlynarski1.44

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite65% won 139 of 214

Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73

Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 122

Kolek2.63

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog39% won 174 of 448

Down 0–1, comes back21% 56 of 267

Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 123

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMlynarski8wins

AwayKolek2wins

2 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMlynarski100%6 of 6

AwayKolek50%2 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Mlynarski6Kolek4n = 10Mlynarski took 6 of 10

S2Mlynarski7Kolek3n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10

S3Mlynarski8Kolek2n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10

S4Mlynarski3Kolek3n = 6split evenly

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMlynarskiKolekM − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.430.9+7.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMlynarskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 304 vs 693 / 139556.6%49.7%172 / 304 vs 693 / 1395Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.9per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Mlynarski

Mlynarski 1.44/Kolek 2.63

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

66.9%

Mlynarski · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Mlynarski won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski356116121M. Kolek4111511143

WAug 30 · 20:30F. Mlynarski4411114183M. Kolek345211161

WAug 23 · 21:50F. Mlynarski49118119103M. Kolek3761121172

WAug 23 · 15:25F. Mlynarski3851111113M. Kolek29117561

LAug 23 · 24:35F. Mlynarski32951171M. Kolek3911116113

WJul 25 · 16:55F. Mlynarski331111113M. Kolek203980

WJul 12 · 20:30F. Mlynarski331111113M. Kolek192980

WJul 5 · 23:55F. Mlynarski341112113M. Kolek2121090

WJul 5 · 21:45F. Mlynarski341112113M. Kolek2251070

WJul 4 · 23:15F. Mlynarski52791114113M. Kolek47111161272

F. Mlynarski10

WSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252 WSep 13 · 24:35D. Jadam1.8311710F. Mlynarski1.831311113 LSep 12 · 22:55P. Jendrzejewski1.9112611113F. Mlynarski1.801011391 WSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski2.633640F. Mlynarski1.441111113 WSep 12 · 21:25T. Filbrandt1.9111761172F. Mlynarski1.80511118113 LSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143 WSep 12 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.6131111592F. Mlynarski2.20113711113 WSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113 WSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192 WSep 12 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.6711711133P. Jendrzejewski2.106119111

M. Kolek10

WSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291 WSep 13 · 14:35T. Piotrowski3.055580M. Kolek1.291111113 WSep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek1.241191313133M. Piecowski3.404111115112 LSep 13 · 12:10D. Solilo1.8511118113M. Kolek1.85371181 WSep 13 · 10:55G. Kesik2.65631121M. Kolek1.4011118113 LSep 13 · 09:20P. Maruszak2.80119511113M. Kolek1.3481111982 WSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143 WSep 12 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.53411111172M. Kolek2.38118913113 LSep 12 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.36111188113M. Kolek3.0068111192 LSep 12 · 16:30P. Jendrzejewski1.61111282113M. Kolek2.20610111152

Upcoming Matches

F. Mlynarski

Sep 13 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.44L. Pietraszko2.63—Sep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.50K. Staszczyk2.50—Sep 13 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.83D. Jadam1.83—Sep 13 · 21:00F. Mlynarski1.80M. Rutkowski1.91—Sep 13 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.44L. Pietraszko2.63—Sep 13 · 22:35F. Mlynarski1.36A. Wos3.00—Sep 13 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.83D. Jadam1.83—

M. Kolek2 of 8 neutral

Sep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.50G. Kesik2.50—Sep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.91L. Pietraszko1.80—Sep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 14 · 15:25M. Kolek—K. Staszczyk——Sep 14 · 16:05M. Kolek—J. Witkowski——Sep 14 · 17:20M. Kolek—K. Kostyk——Sep 14 · 18:30M. Kolek—A. Linek——Sep 14 · 19:40M. Kolek—K. Rudomina——

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